With everybody spending their Monday filling out their college basketball brackets, it’s the perfect time to pick off some winners in the NBA. The association gives us a nine-game slate highlighted by the potential battle of MVP candidates as the Denver Nuggets travel to face the Philadelphia 76ers. I decided to pass on figuring out which Philadelphia team will show up with much more valuable betting options on board. We start in San Antonio and end in Sacramento for this week’s side, total and prop.
All lines via BetMGM.
Minnesota (-3.5) at San Antonio
There is plenty of motivation in this one. The Timberwolves are looking to get into a top-six seed to avoid the play-in tournament while the Spurs are fighting to get into it. Minnesota is coming off a huge road win in Miami for its seventh win in eight games. The Timberwolves are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games and take on a Spurs team that is 6-12 this season as home dogs.
You’re going to need a strong defensive performance to cover this number on the road, and Minnesota has the answers on that end of the floor. They are top 10 in defensive rating on the season and No. 1 over the past five games. The Spurs will look to play fast, but the Wolves do an excellent job closing off the passing lanes and forcing turnovers, where they are second best in the league on a per-play basis. Minnesota is one of the few teams that can run the floor with San Antonio, and I am willing to bet those extra possessions add up to them covering this spread with another impressive road performance.
Washington at Golden State (Over 225.5)
The Wizards have surprisingly improved offensively in their last five games. They are 4-1 to the over and have the seventh-best offensive rating during that stretch. They are running into a Warriors team on a three-game heater that includes decisive wins over the Nuggets and the defending champion Bucks. Klay Thompson is coming off a season-high 38-point performance and should feast on Washington’s defense. Saturday night’s nine-point loss to a pitiful Portland team was a strong sign that the Wizards are already thinking of heading back home. I am willing to bet they don’t put up much of a fight defensively in Golden State on the fourth leg of their road trip. Washington’s last five games have an average combined score of 237.4, and I could see this one getting just as high.
De’Aaron Fox over 25.5 Points
The Sacramento Kings are watching their chances of qualifying for the play-in slowly slip away with each loss. Despite being five losses out of the 10th seed, point guard De’Aaron Fox has been doing everything in his power to keep this team competitive. Fox has scored 40-plus points in two of his last four while averaging 30 points in his last 10 games.
Fox gets to go off Monday night on a Chicago defense that has allowed 122.5 points per 100 possessions in its last five road contests. Alex Caruso gives Chicago an upgrade defensively on the perimeter, but Fox will use his explosiveness to get to the paint and pile up buckets. When these two teams played last month, Fox scorched Chicago for 33 as the Kings came up short 125-118. It’s a prime spot for him to take advantage of a defense that might wear down with a late West Coast start.
Stats provided by nba.com, evanalytics, and teamrankings.com.
