Friday night’s NBA slate has more games than you can shake a stick at — provided you can only shake a stick at eight games or less. All eyes will be on the Sixers-Timberwolves matchup, where the newly-acquired James Harden will suit up for his Philly debut. Here are some of my favorite props for tonight, courtesy of BetMGM:
James Harden over 9.5 assists (-145)
The Sixers’ new guard likes to make a good first impression, posting a 37/6/12 line in his first game with the Rockets and going for a 32/12/14 triple-double in his Nets debut. Now he’s being paired with unstoppable odds-on MVP favorite Joel Embiid. You’re already envisioning all the assists, aren’t you? Harden ranks second in the NBA in assists, averaging 10.2 per game, and has hit this number in seven of his last eight outings. It’s a lot of juice but I think the beard drops enough dimes to make a dollar tonight.
It’s getting to be that time of the season where the league’s worst teams give more run to their rookies as they look forward to the future. Tate has logged 3.4 more minutes per game in February than he did last month. He’s also enjoying the best shooting month of his rookie season, hitting at least 50% of his field goal attempts in six of his eight games and going over this prop in each of his last three. Orlando ranks dead last against power forwards, allowing 23.9 points per game to the position.
Pascal Siakam under 14.5 assists + rebounds (-115)
This is one of those bets that I’m uneasy about playing but feel compelled to, like a priest is flicking holy water at me, shouting that I have to bet it. Raptors forward OG Anunoby was scratched from tonight’s starting lineup when it was announced that he has a fractured finger and will miss some time. Siakam is averaging 7.6 rebounds and 3.9 assists in 14 games without Anunoby this season, compared to 9.2 rebounds and 5.8 assists when Anunoby plays. The reason I’m apprehensive to play this is because the Hornets allow the second-most rebounds and the most assists per game. It’s a very small play for me.
Miami Heat first to score 20 points (-155)
I wrote about this “race to” game prop yesterday, detailing how Miami is one of the best teams in the league at hitting the 20-point mark before their opponent. They’ve done it in their last eight games and are 39-20 on the season. That 66.1% success rate is more than five percentage points better than the 60.8% you need to hit on a -155 line in order to be profitable. The Heat sit atop the NBA in average first quarter margin (the Knicks rank 19th) and are finally healthy, trotting out a devastating starting lineup of Kyle Lowry, Duncan Robinson, Jimmy Butler, P.J. Tucker, and Bam Adebayo.
Stats provided by Basketball Reference, teamrankings.com, statmuse.com, fantasypros.com and nba.com.
