The top-seeded Miami Heat and fourth-seeded Philadelphia 76ers meet in the Eastern Conference semifinals. The Heat and Sixers beat the Atlanta Hawks and Toronto Raptors in the first round, respectively.
More Yahoo Sports NBA conference semifinals previews:
(2) Boston Celtics vs. (3) Milwaukee Bucks
How they got here
Miami Heat (53-29)
The Heat added Kyle Lowry and PJ Tucker to last year’s underwhelming response to their 2020 NBA Finals team, leaning into their abrasive culture. The 36-year-olds played more games than either Jimmy Butler or Bam Adebayo, and even they missed double-digit outings, but the Heat still ground to the No. 1 seed.
Tyler Herro submitted a Sixth Man of the Year campaign, finishing as the team’s cumulative leading scorer. Duncan Robinson recovered from a slow start to shoot 40% from 3-point range once the calendar turned to 2022. Max Strus, Gabe Vincent and Caleb Martin emerged as reliable role players, even more so than two-time All-Star Victor Oladipo, who returned late in the season after a series of career-threatening injuries.
The result was a capable offense and a stifling defense, which embarrassed Hawks star Trae Young in the first round. With Lowry and Butler nursing hamstring and knee injuries, respectively, Miami still handled Atlanta in a series-clinching Game 5 win. Health remains the Heat’s biggest challenge, as tough as they are.
Philadelphia 76ers (51-31)
All-NBA point guard Ben Simmons refused to report to the team, so All-NBA center Joel Embiid took it upon himself to carry the Sixers, logging an MVP-caliber season and keeping Philadelphia afloat until the trade deadline. Embiid averaged a league-high 30.6 points per game on high efficiency and anchored a defense that sat just outside the top 10, despite the presence of several turnstiles in the Sixers’ rotation.
Sixers executive Daryl Morey made a bold move at the deadline, dealing Simmons, Seth Cury, Andre Drummond and two first-round picks for James Harden, who submarined his way out of Houston and Brooklyn in a year’s time. Harden has been wildly disappointing in Philadelphia, but he can still accumulate numbers, and he showed up just enough to beat the depleted Toronto Raptors in a first-round series.
More important to Philadelphia’s future in these playoffs and beyond is the development of Tyrese Maxey into a legitimate playmaking threat. How much he can continue to ease the pressure on Embiid and Harden, who are respectively battling thumb and conditioning issues, will determine how competitive the Sixers are.
Head to head
The Heat and Sixers tied their regular-season series, 2-2.
Theirs was a bizarre battle. Harden did not play in any of the four games. The Heat were missing Butler, Adebayo and Herro when they won their first meeting in mid-December, and Miami did not have Butler, Adebayo and Lowry on the floor together until their final showdown on March 21, when the Sixers won without Harden or Embiid. Good luck trying to translate any of that randomness to their playoff series.
Closing lineups
Miami Heat
Butler, Adebayo and Lowry will close games, so long as they are healthy. Tucker should be out there, given his experience fulfilling that role for the Milwaukee Bucks in last year’s playoffs. Those four are the foundation of lineups that have outscored opponents by 9.2 points per 100 possessions over 544 minutes during the regular season. Herro is a logical choice for the fifth spot, but his defense can be targeted. Strus and Vincent have also earned Heat coach Erik Spoelstra’s trust in the clutch throughout the season, so the Heat will likely tinker with their crunch-time five, depending on which end of the floor he needs more help.
Philadelphia 76ers
Likewise, Embiid, Harden, Maxey and Tobias Harris are mainstays of Sixers coach Doc Rivers’ closing lineup, unless Harden is a complete disaster on defense. Those four finished the regular season +17.6 points per 100 possessions over 464 minutes during the regular season, regardless of who filled the fifth spot. Danny Green is as playoff experienced as a player can be. Matisse Thybulle is a better defensive option at this point, but it will difficult keeping Georges Niang off the floor if he continues to shoot the way he has throughout his career and especially in these playoffs (12 for 18 in Philadelphia’s first-round series).
Matchup to watch
Embiid has conceded that the torn ligament in his shooting thumb is hindering his performance, both physically and mentally, and Adebayo’s presence in the paint will do him no favors. Embiid missed all nine of his 3-point attempts once news of his injury broke following Game 3 against Toronto, which means he will have to dominate the post against arguably the game’s best defensive player with a bum thumb.
Embiid scored twice in 33 possessions over seven minutes matched up against Adebayo in their lone meeting on March 5, when the Heat held the Sixers to 82 points in a blowout victory. Harden faces his own hurdles against Butler and Miami’s perimeter defense, and Embiid has been the answer to every challenge, but the combination of Adebayo and an injured thumb will be his toughest test in a season full of them.
Series schedule
May 2: Philadelphia at Miami, 7:30 p.m. (TNT)
May 4: Philadelphia at Miami, 7:30 p.m. (TNT)
May 6: Miami at Philadelphia, 7 p.m. (ESPN)
May 8: Miami at Philadelphia, TBD
May 10: Philadelphia at Miami, TBD (TNT)*
May 12: Miami at Philadelphia, TBD (ESPN)*
May 15: Philadelphia at Miami, TBD*
(*if necessary)
Miami Heat (-160)
Philadelphia 76ers (+135)
Prediction
Heat in six.
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Ben Rohrbach is a staff writer for Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at [email protected] or follow him on Twitter! Follow @brohrbach