It’s a big night in the NBA playoffs. Three teams, all higher seeds in their first-round matchup, could have their seasons end on Wednesday.
That includes a No. 1 seed, the Milwaukee Bucks. It’s not good for the Bucks, Cleveland Cavaliers and Memphis Grizzlies. Only 13 of 270 NBA teams have come back from a 3-1 hole to win a series.
There are four NBA playoff games overall, so let’s look at each of them with the odds from BetMGM:
The Cavs are down 3-1, and have generally been outplayed by the Knicks. The Knicks set the tone in a Game 1 win at Cleveland and have kept it rolling from there. The Knicks won by 20 in Game 3 and by nine in Game 4 in New York.
The Cavaliers did blow out the Knicks and cover in Game 2 and that seems like a plausible outcome again Wednesday, setting up a huge Game 6 in the series.
Experience matters, and the Grizzlies seem to be struggling with the pressure of this playoff series. Game 4 was a razor-thin overtime win for the Lakers, but they’ve shown more mettle this series. The Lakers might also be the better team, if you look at how well they played from early March until now. I’ll take the points.
Miami Heat at Milwaukee Bucks (-11.5)
The Bucks have looked old and slow in this series. Jimmy Butler is absolutely cooking them, including an unbelievable performance in Game 4. If you had no idea about the seeds and just watched the first four games, you’d think Miami was the better team and definitely not a No. 8 seed. I don’t know how anyone could justify laying this many points with the Bucks after what we’ve seen.
I’d usually have no problem taking the Kings against the great at home/terrible on the road Warriors, but De’Aaron Fox’s injury complicates things. The elite Kings guard has a fracture in the tip of a finger in his shooting hand. Fox said he will play, but will he be effective? If not, it will be hard for the Kings to win. I’ll still ride with the Kings, who have been disrespected this whole series, but the road to advancing got a lot tougher for them.
Here’s a look at the rest of the sports betting slate for Wednesday:
Two NHL games
The NHL slows down just a tiny bit Wednesday with only two games. One is a potential elimination game as the Boston Bruins, up 3-1, take on the Florida Panthers. The Bruins are a heavy -250 favorite. The Bruins were upset in Game 2 but roared back, showing why they were the best team in the NHL this season.
In the other game, the Colorado Avalanche are -185 favorites over the Seattle Kraken. That line doesn’t reflect how close this series has been. The series is tied 2-2 and the Kraken led for a lot of Game 2 before the Avs rallied to take it. It’s hard to go against Colorado at home but Seattle is not backing down.
MLB has full day
If you needed more action, there are seven afternoon MLB games on a 15-game slate. That includes the New York Yankees looking to avoid being swept by the Minnesota Twins. The Twins are a -120 favorite. The highlight of the evening games is the Houston Astros at the Tampa Bay Rays. The Rays lost for the first time at home this season on Tuesday night, after 14 straight home wins to start the season. The Rays are a -135 favorite to start another home streak on Wednesday.
What’s the best bet?
I just don’t see how the Bucks can be 11.5-point favorites. The argument would have to be that Jimmy Butler can’t drop 52 again and the rest of the Heat aren’t helping much. The Bucks just haven’t looked very good though. Maybe they blast the Heat by double digits and cover, but I’m not buying it yet.
