Telling stats suggest Marcus Smart is Celtics’ X-factor for Game 4 originally appeared on NBC Sports Boston
Boston fans who have followed Marcus Smart throughout his Celtics career have been hard-wired to cringe when he hoists a 3-pointer.
But there’s some compelling evidence to indicate he should keep chucking.
Take Games 2 and 3 of the NBA Finals, for example. Smart mustered just two points on 1 of 6 shooting in Game 2 as Boston sputtered to a 107-88 loss at Golden State. In Game 3, Smart broke out for 24 points on 8 of 17 shooting to help the Celtics earn a 116-100 win over the Warriors at TD Garden.
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Those two games are part of a larger trend for Smart and the Celtics this postseason. From Celtics stat guru Dick Lipe…
Simply put: If Smart is on his game offensively, the Celtics win.
That may seem like an obvious statement, but Smart buckets haven’t always translated to Boston victories: The C’s lost five regular-season games in which Smart scored 18-plus points and lost both of Smart’s highest-scoring efforts (29 at Milwaukee on April 7 and 28 at Toronto on March 28).
The difference in the postseason? Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown have gone to another level as playmakers, making the right pass to find their teammates in the face of increased defensive attention. That has meant more open shots for Smart, who connected on this huge fourth-quarter 3-pointer in Game 3 after Golden State swarmed Tatum.
When Smart is knocking those shots down, it opens up Boston’s entire offense, easing the defensive pressure on Tatum and Brown while giving them more space to attack the basket.
As for that rebounding stat: It’s generally a good sign when your starting point guard grabs at least five boards in a game, and the Celtics’ rebounding advantage was a big reason why they won Game 3.
That’s not to say Smart should put up 20 shots and try to grab every rebound in Game 4. The Celtics’ offense is at its best when Smart is in facilitator mode and lets the offense come to him. To that point, Boston is 10-2 this postseason when Smart records at least five assists.
But Smart hitting shots is a very good sign for the Celtics, and if he can repeat Wednesday’s performance in Game 4, history suggests a 3-1 lead could be in their future.