Last week’s fantasy basketball roundtable covered the players who could end up being first-round value that are currently outside of the first round. For today’s discussion, we’ve assembled five fantasy hoops analysts to share their thoughts on the players to avoid drafting this season: their All-Fade team.
Each analyst has their own unique take as to why they’re staying away from certain players when it comes to drafting their ideal roster this year. Read on to see who made the cut for the 2023-2024 season.
Jrue Holiday now adorns a new shade of green (PMS 356 C, to be exact) in the Eastern Conference with the Celtics. In Milwaukee, Jrue finished the last two seasons as the 32nd and 39th-ranked player in nine-category leagues, respectively. In ’22-’23, he had the third-highest usage rate of any player on the Bucks with more than 100 qualifying minutes. And although Holiday doesn’t need a high degree of usage to be an impact player, it does help.
You could argue that because Giannis Antetokounmpo led the league in usage rate last year (37.3%), Holiday’s situation got better. It’s not.
Jayson Tatum was ninth in usage rate (31.9%), and Jaylen Brown was 14th (30.7%). Factor in the newly acquired Kristaps Porziņģis into the Celtics system and you start to see there will simply be less opportunity for Jrue to return value like he has in recent seasons.
This leads me to the collateral damage that is Derrick White. Oh, poor Derrick. You can unquestionably fade to black (sans a Jrue injury) any hopes you held pre-trade of White being a hot pickup and well exceeding his ADP due to the opportunity presented with the departure of Marcus Smart. I see Holiday finishing the season around the 60s and White in the 90s in per-game value. — Matt Garrett, Insight Fantasy Sports
Beal has had some great fantasy seasons in the past, but the last two years have been somewhat disappointing. After back-to-back 30+ points per game seasons, he’s seen his usage, points and field-goal attempts decline every year, even on a poor Wizards roster. To make matters worse, health has now become an issue, as he’s only played 90 games over the last two seasons combined. Now a member of the Suns, he easily becomes the third option behind Devin Booker and Kevin Durant. This is a problem, especially as most of his fantasy value has come through his ability to score the basketball over the years. Sure, his efficiency could improve with fewer shot attempts, but what good does an empty 20 points per game serve you in fantasy?
Oh, and this whole notion that Beal will play point guard over Devin Booker? I’m not buying it. Beal is one of the best off-ball scorers in the league, and Booker thrived running the point when Chris Paul missed time last season. It just wouldn’t make sense. While this was a great real-life move for the Suns, I predict it will have the opposite effect on Beal’s fantasy value. As a result, I’m no longer interested in investing a pick on him inside the first five rounds of drafts. — Alex Burns, Rotoballer
Middleton used to be a favorite of mine, but it’d be silly to draft him this season. The former All-Star has had trouble staying on the court over recent years, playing just 33 games last season. He also had the worst year of his career, averaging 15.1 points, 4.2 rebounds, 4.9 assists and 0.7 steals across 24 minutes a night. We don’t expect that type of workload again, but it’s a horrifying trend since he had another knee procedure in the offseason.
The nail in the coffin was the Damian Lillard trade.
Lillard should take on 35 minutes, 15-20 shots and 25-30 percent of the team’s usage! It’ll be tough for Middleton to return value with Dame and Giannis Antetokounmpo being asked to do so much. This sort of fall-off is terrifying for an 11-year vet, and it’s an unnecessary risk in the first six rounds of your draft. — Joel Bartilotta (Rotowire/FantasyPros)
The Iron Man of the NBA, Bridges never missed a game in his college career, and he’s yet to miss one since joining the NBA in the 2019-20 season. Bridges enjoyed the best statistical season of his career in 2022-23, posting career-highs with 20.1 points, 4.4 rebounds, 3.3 dimes, 0.7 blocks and 2.0 triples to go with 1.1 steals. He finished 32nd in per-game fantasy value, but he was even better to end the season. After getting traded to Brooklyn, he ranked 25th in per-game fantasy value as his usage rate shot up to 30.0 and his counting stats ballooned. Bridges showed how effective he could be as a team’s top offensive option, but can that continue in 2023-24? The Nets were scraping for playoff position after losing Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving, and Bridges took the reigns of a chaotic team trotting out a brand new roster.
Brooklyn added Dennis Smith Jr., Lonnie Walker IV and Darius Bazley in the offseason, and most significantly, Ben Simmons is back and expected to be the starting PG. It’s hard to imagine Bridges reaching the same heights he did to close last season, and his ADP is 19 on Yahoo. Even at his absolute best, Bridges put up top-25 numbers. To draft him inside the top 20 is to draft him at his absolute ceiling with an expected improvement in production. His draft price is way too rich for me, and I’ll avoid Bridges this season because of it. — Zak Hanshew (Rotoworld)
Gobert is coming off an underwhelming campaign with the Minnesota Timberwolves, finishing 59th in per-game value — his worst finish since the 2015-2016 season. Don’t get me wrong, 59th is hardly bad in fantasy terms. The problem lies where Gobert was being drafted relative to his performance. Gobert’s been a consensus third-round pick for years, and to finish nearly two rounds behind that expectation is concerning. Assists and steals were the only areas of improvement, and it was by such an insignificant margin that it was hardly worth mentioning.
You spend up for Gobert because he used to give a categorial advantage for his elite rebounding, high FG percentage and blocks. But last year, he posted his lowest block rate (3.9%) and the third-lowest player efficiency rating (PER) of his career. To make matters worse, his scoring, efficiency at the rim and rebounding rates all went down; this is a player who is either in decline or uncomfortable in the Timberwolves’ system.
Maybe he needs more time to get comfortable playing alongside Karl-Anthony Towns, but wouldn’t you expect his numbers to improve once KAT got hurt last year?
Surprise! They didn’t.
Gobert didn’t live up to expectations for fantasy managers in his first year in Minnesota, and I’m expecting a similar finish outside of the top 60 this season. His sixth-round ADP is fair, but I’ll be fading regardless. — Dan Titus, Yahoo