The NBA wanted to create drama at a time of year when fans’ focus is often on other sports. It succeeded with the drama (whether the fans care is TBD).
Tuesday night is the final night of the group play stage of the In Season Tournament and six of the eight spots in the quarterfinals — the start of the knockout round — are still up for grabs. We know that the Lakers in the West and the Pacers in the East are in, but after that the winners of four groups plus the two wild card spots are to be determined.
Here’s what to look for in the eight games Tuesday night. As a brief refresher, the 30 NBA teams were divided into six groups of five and teams played four games against the others in that group (these games also counted as regular season games). The winners of the six groups plus one wild card from each conference advance to the eight-team knockout round. The real key to remember Tuesday: If two teams in the same group are tied the tiebreaker is head-to-head, but the tiebreaker for more than two teams or for the wild card spots is point differential — teams have a reason to run up the score to advance.
Those final eight teams will play a traditional tournament style, with the final four teams headed to Las Vegas on Dec. 7 and 9 for the semi-finals and final of the tournament.
Here’s how things break down for Tuesday night.
East Group A
Game: Atlanta at Cleveland
Standings:
Pacers 4-0
Cavaliers 2-1
76ers 2-2
Hawks 1-2
Pistons 0-4
The Pacers have already wrapped up East Group A and move on as the No. 1 seed. The Cavaliers could advance as a wild card but they need not just to win but to blow out the Hawks in this game, Cleveland’s current +6 point differential needs to be a lot higher.
East Group B
Games: Milwaukee at Miami, Hornets at Knicks
Standings:
Bucks 3-0
Knicks 2-1
Heat 2-1
Hornets 1-2
Wizards 0-4
The Bucks control their own destiny, beat the Heat and Milwaukee improves to 4-0 and wins Group B. If the Heat win at home, they would be tied with the Bucks at 3-1 and have the head-to-head tiebreaker. The Knicks will be heavily favorited to beat the shorthanded Hornets and if they do they improve to 3-1, and if they can rack up a healthy margin of victory, New York will be poised to advance either as the winner of the group or as a wild card. Milwaukee is in a good spot either way with a +39 point differential heading into Tuesday, while the Knicks are +18 and the Heat +11.
Charlotte is technically alive for a wild card spot but the number of things that have to go right for them — a win plus Cleveland, Miami, Boston and Brooklyn all losing — makes it an incredible long shot.
East Group C
Games: Chicago at Boston, Toronto at Brooklyn
Standings:
Magic 3-1
Celtics 2-1
Nets 2-1
Raptors 1-2
Bulls 0-2
The Orlando Magic are off Tuesday night but are likely to either win East Group C or advance as a wild card on point differential. However, these two games will have a say in that. If the Celtics beat the Bulls (as expected) they still lose the 1-on-1 tiebreaker with the Magic (Orlando won the head-to-head game). If the Celtics somehow lose to the Bulls and the Nets beat the Raptors to improve to 3-1, the Nets have the head-to-head tiebreaker against the Magic and Brooklyn would win the group.
It gets complex if both Brooklyn and Boston win — it’s a three-way tie at 3-1 and point differential will decide things. Orlando is +22, Brooklyn enters the night +8 and Boston is even. If the Nets or Celtics plan to advance — either as the division winner or as a wild card — they need to win big and rack up some serious point differential Tuesday night.
West Group B
Game: Houston at Dallas
Standings:
Pelicans 3-1
Rockets 2-1
Nuggets 2-2
Mavericks 1-2
Clippers 1-3
If the Rockets win, they will win West Group B (both they and the Pelicans would be 3-1, but Houston has the head-to-head tiebreaker). If Dallas wins, then New Orleans wins the group and it’s unlikely Houston advances with two losses. The Mavericks are already eliminated.
West Group C
Games: Oklahoma City at Minnesota, Sacramento at Golden State
Standings:
Kings 3-0
Timberwolves 2-1
Warriors 2-1
Thunder 1-2
Spurs 0-4
If the Kings can beat the Warriors, Sacramento wins the division and advances. If the Warriors beat the Kings then both teams are 3-1 and Golden State has the head-to-head tiebreaker. However, if the Warriors win and the Timberwolves beat the (already eliminated) Thunder, then three teams would be 3-1 and it would come down to point differential. Sacramento is in good shape here, entering the day +29 to the Warriors +5 and the Timberwolves -3. Minnesota is mathematically alive but would need a 30-point or more win to get into the wild card mix.