What Chris Paul injury means for Warriors, Western Conference race

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What CP3’s injury means for Warriors, Western Conference race originally appeared on NBC Sports Bayarea

The Phoenix Suns have been the best team in the NBA this season. After starting 1-3, the Suns have gone 47-7 and are 21-2 since January first. Phoenix entered the All-Star break with a six-and-half game lead over the Warriors for the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference.

But the Suns will have to face the final stretch of the regular season without star point guard Chris Paul who will miss six-to-eight weeks after suffering an avulsion fracture in his right thumb. There are seven weeks left in the regular season, and the start of the NBA playoffs is eight weeks out, meaning we likely won’t see Paul again until the first round of the playoffs at the earliest.

Naturally, this begs the question: Will Paul’s injury allow the Warriors to catch the Suns atop the West?

Let’s start with what Paul’s absence will mean to the Suns.

Paul hasn’t missed a game this season. The last time Paul missed a game for the Suns was in the 2020 NBA Finals when the Suns went 2-0 without him as he sat out Games 1 and 2 after testing positive for COVID-19.

This season, the Suns have an offensive efficiency rating of 115.9, with Paul on the floor and a defensive efficiency of 105.4. That plus-10.5 net efficiency rating is the third-best of any player in the NBA. With Paul off the floor, the Suns’ offensive efficiency dips to 104.9 while their defensive efficiency is 100.7.

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Paul’s impact on the Suns is clear. The Point God is the ultimate floor general, is the best in the NBA at controlling the pace of a game, and makes the Suns’ offense operate at an extremely high level.

Without Paul, the Suns will have to rely on Devin Booker to be a playmaker and facilitator. Booker is more than capable of running the show for the Suns. Per NBA Advanced Stats, Booker averages 5.8 assists per 36 minutes without Paul on the floor, up from 4.3 with The Point God on the court. However, Booker’s scoring drops from 27.4 points per 36 to 25.5 when Paul isn’t alongside him in the backcourt.

Booker will have to shoulder more of a playmaking load because the Suns’ other backcourt options behind Paul leave a lot to be desired.

Cameron Payne hasn’t played since Jan. 22 due to a wrist sprain. Elfrid Payton has starting point guard experience but has been relatively ineffective this season. New addition Aaron Holiday is a decent 3-point shooter but isn’t someone Monty Williams will want to run his offense through.

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But Paul’s injury shouldn’t cost the Suns the top spot in the Western Conference for two big reasons.

First of all, the Warriors aren’t fully healthy, and Golden State will prioritize being 100 percent when the playoffs begin over getting the No. 1 seed. Draymond Green has missed the last 20 games with a back injury. The Warriors have gone 13-7 without Green, but their defense, which was the best in the NBA through two months, has slipped mightily with the former Defensive Player of the Year in street clothes. Green is aiming to return in three-to-four weeks. That timetable should give the Warriors enough time to see what they have with their full roster, but it likely will be too little, too late to catch the Suns.

Also working against the Warriors is their remaining schedule compared to that of Phoenix.

Per Tankathon, the Warriors have the seventh-toughest remaining schedule, which includes games against the Milwaukee Bucks, Miami Heat, Suns, Memphis Grizzlies, and two against the Dallas Mavericks. The Suns, meanwhile, have the sixth-easiest remaining schedule, with nine of their final 24 games coming against teams that are outside the play-in tournament and six against teams slated to be in the play-in.

The Suns enter the second half with 48 wins and should easily get past the 60-win mark with their remaining schedule. The Warriors (42-17) will have to go on a blistering run to match that pace.

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While Paul’s injury likely won’t cost the Suns the top seed in the West, it could be a factor in the postseason.

Paul’s injury will allow him to be fresh for what the Suns feel will be a deep postseason run. The question remains: When will Paul return?

The 36-year-old had a similar injury to his left thumb in 2017 and returned in five-and-a-half weeks. Since this injury is to his shooting hand, it’s fair to expect Paul’s return to come around the eight-week mark or later for that timetable.

As long as Paul’s recovery goes as planned, the Suns should be at full health by the time they would face the Warriors in a potential Western Conference finals matchup. Any roadblocks in that recovery could change that equation, but for now, Paul’s injury shouldn’t have too big of an impact on the Western Conference title race.

As long as Paul and Green make it through their rehabs without any significant setbacks, the Suns and Warriors should be the favorites to meet in late May with a trip to the NBA Finals on the line.

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