By my count, 12 teams in the West expect to be in the playoffs (and that’s not including the Rockets, who may think so internally). The math there is obvious, and it will leave a few coaches and GMs on very warm chairs as the season progresses.
The West is stacked with quality teams, which means slightly lower win totals than many fans expect and a tightly packed conference where a few bad weeks can be a huge setback. There will be no off nights in the West. Let’s break down the conference into tiers based on title contention. The regular season standings will not follow this exact order, but when it comes to a playoff push this is where I have teams ranked.
CLEAR CONTENDERS
DenverNuggets
Phoenix Suns
The Denver Nuggets will set the bar for the entire NBA — to win a ring, teams will have to be better than the defending champs. Denver brings back the entire starting five that hoisted the Larry O’Brien Trophy last June, has the best player in the world (Nikola Jokic), and arguably the best duo in the league (Jokic and Jamal Murray). They will miss Bruce Brown. However, the Nuggets’ contender status is not in question.
I struggled with whether the Suns are truly a clear contender, or if they should be one level down. There is no question about the top-end talent — Kevin Durant, Devin Booker and Bradley Beal form an elite trio. The Suns offense is going to put up a lot of points. The questions are around defense and depth, both things the Nuggets exposed in the playoffs — did the Suns fix those issues this offseason? Phoenix is going to win a lot of regular season games and finish in the top three in the West. My belief (and why they are clear contenders on this list) is that over the course of those 82 games, they will find the defense and rotations that make them a threat to win it all.
FRINGE CONTENDERS (WE HAVE QUESTIONS)
Golden State Warriors
Los Angeles Lakers
These two teams are in a race with Father Time, but both are capable of contending — if things break their way. Neither team has a margin for error. For the Warriors, Stephen Curry has to remain a top-10 player in the league in his age 36 season, Chris Paul has to lift the Warriors second unit in the non-Curry minutes, and Klay Thompson has to get back to closer to his pre-injury self.
The Lakers upgraded the role players around their stars (Taurean Prince may start and Gabe Vincent may close over D’Angelo Russell), plus Austin Reaves will take another step forward coming off his Team USA experience. Still, this team relies on two superstars with questions: LeBron James turns age 39 in December, can he still raise his game when needed? Is Anthony Davis ready to take over the mantle of the team’s No. 1 option and be a DPOY candidate? The Lakers need a yes to both of those questions.
PLAYOFFS OR BUST
Memphis Grizzlies
Dallas Mavericks
Sacramento Kings
Oklahoma City Thunder
Los Angeles Clippers
Minnesota Timberwolves
New Orleans Pelicans
Utah Jazz
Four of these teams will not make the playoffs; two will not make even the play-in. The math is not good for these teams and for some it could get interesting next summer if they fall short.
Memphis is one team in this group that could jump to fringe contender. The Grizzlies won 50+ games the last two seasons, have Ja Morant (after his 25-game suspension), the DPOY in Jaren Jackson Jr., the underrated Desmond Bane, and added maturity in Marcus Smart and Derrick Rose. The potential is there, but after how last season ended I need to see it before I call them a contender.
Dallas has Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving, they will be elite on offense if those guys are right, but the defense is a question mark (as are the vibes around this team). I saw the Kings this preseason and thought they looked like last year’s team, an elite offense with Domantas Sabonis and De’Aaron Fox but no defense (plus they will not be that lucky with health again). The Thunder have Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and look like a team ready to take a step forward with Chet Holmgren at the five, but how big a step? The Clippers are contenders on paper but if you want to bet on the health of Kawhi Leonard and Paul George go ahead, I am off the bandwagon.
Minnesota feels like a team that could take a step forward from last season (they were 5-0 in preseason). Anthony Edwards looks ready to breakout next to Karl-Anthony Towns and Rudy Gobert, but this is another case where it’s hard to buy in without seeing it work for half a season. The Pelicans could win 50+ games and be a threat if Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram are healthy all season, but I’m not willing to make that bet. The Utah Jazz have an athletic frontline and John Collins only adds to that, but are Collin Sexton and rookie Keyonte George ready to play the point? I’m not sold on Utah as any more than a playoff roster.
HOPEFUL PLAY-IN TEAMS
Houston Rockets
Houston spent big this summer on Fred VanVleet and Dillon Brooks to go next to Jalen Green and company, and Ime Udoka as coach will have them defending, but this team has a long way to go to be good. They will be better, but making the play-in is a long shot in this deep conference.
LOTTERY BOUND
San Antonio Spurs
Portland Trail Blazers
Two of the most fun teams on the board, but they will not win many games. Victor Wembanyama looks better than advertised through the preseason, Scoot Henderson could be special, but both teams have a long way to go and a lot of rebuilding to do to jump up levels. Not this year. Also, there will be a lot of fans saying, “Oh, that’s why Devin Vassell got paid” after watching Spurs games this season.
