Merry Christmas to all. It’s a day for family, opening presents, comforting food, and watching “Elf” on a loop.
It’s also the unofficial start of the NBA season for many fans across the nation, and the league has lined up a slate of five star-studded, high-profile games to get people into the NBA spirit… except, we’re more than a third of the way into the NBA season already. A lot has happened.
For those of you waking up Christmas morning and taking a serious look at the NBA for the first time this season, let’s answer your questions and catch everyone up on what has happened so far.
Why is Draymond Green suspended again? What is going on with the Warriors?
This season has felt like the end of the Warriors championship era — they are raging against the dying of that light, but it feels like the sun is setting on this era. Draymond Green getting suspended is just another symptom.
Green has been suspended indefinitely for a blow to the face of Phoenix’s Jusuf Nurkic.
What led to the league coming down this hard was it was not Green’s first suspension this season — he missed five games after putting Minnesota’s Rudy Gobert in a chokehold and dragging him down the court — and all season Green felt like he was on tilt. Playing with an edge made Green a champion and future Hall of Famer, but this season he’s felt more gimmick than focused player.
The Warriors are 15-14 on the season and sit as the No. 10 seed in the West — if the postseason started today they would be on the road for the play-in games. Stephen Curry has been nothing short of brilliant — 28.3 points per game and shooting 42.1% from 3, looking like he could end up on the MVP ballot at times — but the supporting cast is not living up to that standard. Green is suspended, Andrew Wiggins (the biggest issue, for my money) has played so poorly that he was moved to the bench, and Klay Thompson is not consistently the same shot creator or defender he was prior to his injuries (torn ACL and Achilles). Steve Kerr has had to lean into 21-year-old Jonathan Kuminga and rookie Brandin Podziemski. The result is a Warriors team that can show flashes of brilliance — and may on Christmas Day against the defending champion Nuggets — but overall, this team has a middle-of-the-pack offense and defense. The Warriors have not looked like a playoff threat this season.
With Portland drafting Scoot Henderson and moving toward a rebuild last June, franchise talisman Lillard — for my money the greatest Trail Blazer ever — asked for a trade and the chance to win at the end of his career. He ultimately was traded to Milwaukee and that move worked as well as the Bucks could have hoped on two levels. First, bringing in Lillard showed the franchise’s commitment to winning, and with that Giannis Antetokounmpo signed a contract extension to stay with the team. Crisis averted.
Second, the Lillard and Antetokounmpo pairing took a little bit to find its footing but has become one of the league’s most powerful duos, leading the Bucks to seven straight wins and the No. 2 seed in the East. Milwaukee is doing it with less Lillard/Antetokounmpo pick-and-roll than expected and with more fast break points, but it’s working — the Bucks have a +10 net rating when those two are on the court. With Brook Lopez in the paint and Khris Middleton still in the mix, the Bucks are clear title contenders.
However, one part of this trade could come back to bite the Bucks in the playoffs. To get Lillard, Milwaukee had to send All-Star point guard and elite defender Jrue Holiday to the Trail Blazers, who quickly flipped Holiday to the Boston Celtics — the Bucks’ biggest rivals in the East. If these teams meet in the playoffs, Holiday guarding Lillard could decide the series.
James Harden is a Clipper? How’s that going?
Harden to the Clippers is working better than many expected. Harden took a lot of heat for forcing his way off a third team in four years, but the Clippers saw a risk worth taking — they weren’t going far with the core of Paul George, Kawhi Leonard and Russell Westbrook. There was a rough patch at first for Harden and the Clippers, but since Russell Westbrook agreed to move to a sixth-man role, Harden and the Clippers have thrived. Los Angeles is 9-2 in its last 11 games with the second-best offense in the NBA over that stretch (and those two losses were their last two games when Leonard was out with a hip injury, the only two games he has missed all season). Harden’s passing and Leonard playing like his vintage self has the Clippers looking like a team that could threaten Denver in the West (as much as anyone in the conference can).
Why is everyone marveling at LeBron James?
Because he is playing better than a player days away from turning 39 has a right to. Other NBA legends have played to age 40 and a little past, but even the great Kareem Abudul-Jabbar — who was a 17.5 point-a-game All-Star at age 39 — was not doing what LeBron has this season: 25.7 points, 7.7 rebounds, 7.3 assists a game, and this is the best pure shooting of LeBron’s career. He is the Lakers primary shot creator — the team goes as he goes nightly — and LeBron has played at a level that could land him on MVP ballots. He has been a wonder to watch.
LeBron has stepped it up on the biggest stages the past couple of seasons — which is why the Lakers won the In-Season Tournament — and will likely have a big day on Christmas against the Celtics. The question is whether he gets the support he needs from Anthony Davis and others.
What is going on with the defending champion Denver Nuggets?
They are just cruising along, winning enough and waiting for the games to get serious. When focused they are the best team in the West (even if they sit third in the conference standings behind the upstart Timberwolves and Thunder). Denver got off to a fast 9-2 start then the combination of injuries and boredom with the regular season has seen the Nuggets go 11-8 since. This team still has Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray, and when those two are on the court together the Nuggets have a +14.5 net rating. Denver sets the bar, any team with title dreams of lifting the Larry O’Brien trophy has to be better than the Nuggets — and the Warriors may find out just how high the Nuggets set that bar on Christmas Day.
Who are the best teams in the NBA?
For my money there are four teams in the top tier of title contenders: the Nuggets in the West, the Celtics, Bucks and 76ers in the East. If I were a betting man I would put my money on a Denver vs. Boston NBA Finals, but there is a long time between now and June, a lot of things can change.
In the West, there are a number of quality teams — the Timberwolves with the best defense in the land, the star-studded Clippers, the up-and-coming Thunder, and maybe the Lakers — who might challenge Denver in a seven-game playoff series, but every one of them has serious questions to answer first. Denver is the known quantity.
Who is leading the MVP race?
Joel Embiid is barely ahead of Nikola Jokic to be MVP. That’s both on my early scorecard and the results of the first ESPN straw poll (which is not an exact match to the NBA’s voting pool but does a good job of predicting the outcome).
Embiid is having a better season than he did a year ago when he won MVP: 35 points, 11.7 rebounds and six assists a game, doing more playmaking from the elbow/free throw line area, and being a defensive force. Jokic is almost averaging a triple-double on the season at 26.4 points, 12.3 rebounds, and 9.2 assists per game. Look at the advanced stats and there is nearly dead heat between these two.
On my ballot, the Thunder’s Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is on that top tier with Embiid and Jokic as SGA has lifted the Thunder to become one of the top teams in the league while averaging 30.8 points, 6.3 assists and 5.7 rebounds a game. After that, the battle for the final couple of spots on the five-man ballot is crowded with Jayson Tatum, Luka Doncic, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Kevin Durant, LeBron James, Tyrese Haliburton and Anthony Edwards deserving of consideration.
Victor Wembanyama was a huge name out of the draft. How’s he doing?
Impressively well, just on a very bad team. The Spurs have played Wembanyama in a lot of different roles — posting up, getting him the ball in the high post, having him bring the ball up, facing up on the wing — and he is finding his comfort zones in the league and where he can get his points. In the last couple of weeks, Gregg Popovich took the training wheels off (Wembanyama is no longer playing next to a “real” center in Zach Collins, and the point guard situation has changed), and things have looked better. For the season, Wembanyama is averaging 18.5 points and 10.7 rebounds a game, plus, more importantly, three blocks a night — he is already an excellent rim protector and defender. Wembanyama has been everything the Spurs could have hoped for as a rookie.
And he still wouldn’t win Rookie of the Year right now, that would go to the Thunder’s Chet Holmgren. The No. 2 pick of 2022 sat out all of last season due to injury, then this season was asked to step into a specific role next to Gilgeous-Alexander as a pick-setter who can pop out for 3, roll to the rim and provide the rim protection this team needs. Holmgren has done that to the tune of 17.2 points and eight rebounds a game, and he is impacting winning.
What was this “In-Season Tournament” and how did it go?
The NBA tried to juice what is usually a quiet time of the season by putting together a European-style soccer tournament in the middle of the NBA season. The goal was to boost the level of play and fan interest, which seemed to work — the level of play was higher in those games and ratings were up. Players liked it and were motivated (each player on the winning team getting $500,000 helped), the league’s hardcore fans loved it, and football fans normally more worried about their fantasy lineups looked up long enough to ask “What is with those courts?”
LeBron James and the Lakers won the inaugural In-Season Tournament — and raised a banner for it — and year one has to be considered a success. The format could use tweaks, and how many people are watching if LeBron and the Lakers are not in the Finals is up for debate, but this worked well and we will see this tournament for a few more years at least.
What’s happening with Ja Morant?
He’s back and reminding everyone why he is the most dynamic player in the league. Morant missed the first 25 games of the regular season with a suspension for a second offense waiving a gun around on social media (a bad look for an image-counsious league). The Grizzlies were lost without Morant (and center Steven Adams, who is out for the season following surgery) and started the season 6-19. Since Morant’s return they have won three straight and he hit the game-winner against the Pelicans. Suddenly the Grizzlies climbing their way into the play-in and into the playoffs beyond that seems possible.
Who is having a breakout season?
There have been a few. At the top of the list has to be Tyrese Haliburton with the Pacers, who has been as good and as critical an offensive player to his team as we have seen this season. One of the best passers in the game (something he showed off last summer at the World Cup), Haliburton is averaging 24.5 points and 12.2 assists a game — he is not only a lock All-Star but seems on his way to an All-NBA nod.
Anthony Edwards in Minnesota has jumped up to superstar status and is leading the surprising best team in the West so far (22-6). Edwards is averaging 25.2 points, 5.5 rebounds, and 5.3 assists per game for the Timberwolves. Then there is Tyrese Maxey, who got thrust into a bigger role as James Harden forced his way out of Philadelphia and Maxey has responded averaging 26.4 points and 6.8 assists per game for the 76ers.
Other players worth noting on this front are Mikal Bridges in Brooklyn (continuing what he did after the trade deadline last season), Franz Wagner in Orlando, and Alperen Şengün with the Rockets.
