Updated standings, seeding entering final game

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Celtics playoff scenarios: Updated standings, seeding entering final game originally appeared on NBC Sports Boston

The Boston Celtics have only one game left on their regular season schedule, and yet there is still much left to be determined in the Eastern Conference playoff race.

The Celtics’ quest for the top seed officially ended Thursday night when they lost to the Milwaukee Bucks on the road without Jayson Tatum and Al Horford. Boston’s latest loss, in addition to the Philadelphia 76ers losing to the Toronto Raptors on Thursday, officially clinched the top seed for the Miami Heat.

What should Celtics fans watch for over the final couple days of the regular season?

Let’s begin with the East standings entering Friday night’s games:

  1. Miami Heat (clinched No. 1 seed)

  2. Milwaukee Bucks (2 games back)

  3. Boston Celtics (2.5 GB)

  4. Philadelphia 76ers (3 GB)

  5. Toronto Raptors (5 GB)

  6. Chicago Bulls (7 GB)

  7. Cleveland Cavaliers (9 GB)*

  8. Brooklyn Nets (10 GB)*

  9. Atlanta Hawks (10 GB)*

  10. Charlotte Hornets (11 GB)*

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*Play-in tournament

Potential Scenarios

The Celtics can still finish second, third or fourth in the East.

According to Basketball Reference’s model, the Celtics have a 17.7 percent chance of finishing as the No. 2 seed, a 53.1 percent chance of getting the No. 3 seed and a 29.3 percent chance of landing the No. 4 seed.

Here are the remaining schedules for the Celtics, Milwaukee Bucks and Philadelphia 76ers. There’s a 97.5 percent chance these are the three teams that finish in second, third and fourth place in some order. The Toronto Raptors have just a 2.5 percent chance of squeezing into the top four, per Basketball Reference.

  • Celtics: Sunday at Grizzlies

  • Bucks: Friday at Pistons, Sunday at Cavaliers

  • 76ers: Saturday vs. Pacers, Sunday vs. Pistons

Which scenarios are still in play? Here’s a recap.

  • The Celtics clinch the No. 2 seed with a win over the Grizzlies and the Bucks and 76ers both losing at least one of their final two games.

  • The Celtics clinch the No. 3 seed with a win over the Grizzlies and the Bucks winning both of their last two games. Boston also clinches the No. 3 seed with a loss to the Grizzlies and the 76ers losing one of their final two games.

  • The Celtics finish with the No. 4 seed if they lose to the Grizzlies and the Bucks and 76ers both go 2-0 to finish the regular season.

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How should C’s approach final game?

The No. 1 goal for the Celtics on Sunday should be getting through that game without any injuries. The Celtics already have lost starting center Robert Williams for four to six weeks, and they cannot afford to see another quality player go down with the playoffs starting in about a week.

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In regards to seeding, the No. 3 seed is probably the best place for the Celtics because it guarantees they avoid the Brooklyn Nets in the first round. The No. 3 seed also likely would result in Boston playing the Chicago Bulls in Round 1, and they are the most favorable matchup right now.

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The Bulls have been hit hard by injuries this season, and point guard Lonzo Ball recently was ruled out for the rest of the year. Chicago also is limping toward the end of the regular season with three consecutive losses and just four wins in its last 10 games entering Friday.

The Bucks play at 3:30 p.m. on Sunday and the Celtics play the Grizzlies at 7 p.m. So the C’s will know what’s at stake when they tip off. If the Bucks go 2-0 to end the season, the Celtics will need to beat the Grizzlies to get the No. 3 seed. If the Bucks go 1-1 or lose both, the Celtics will need to lose to the Grizzlies to secure the No. 3 seed.

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