Special to Yahoo Sports
We’re just over a week away from Opening Night, so now is the time for fantasy basketball managers to lock in on the final stages of draft prep.
For most managers, a successful draft is characterized by finding the right balance of risk and security. Taking too many chances on high-upside/low-floor players — such as Kyrie Irving and Zion Williamson — can sink just about any roster if things don’t break right. On the contrary, playing it too safe can result in a low-upside build that may take you out of contention for an overall prize.
By this point in the NBA calendar, fantasy managers are well aware of the high-upside players who can make or break your season. For the purposes of this piece, we’ll focus instead on identifying the less-polarizing players who can serve as roster cornerstones for just about any build.
Of course, the definition of a “safe” player goes hand in hand with durability. For better or worse (hint: worse), games played have become an increasingly important part of the equation in fantasy basketball. A year ago, only two of the top 20 players in per-game value reached the 70-game plateau. Switch to total value, and that number jumps to 10 of the top 20.
Below, we’ll break things down and take a closer look at the safest players fantasy managers can target within each round. Durability is our primary concern, but a well-rounded stat profile and a proven track record are also taken into account.
This one almost goes without saying. So much so that I considered not even highlighting Jokić, who will once again be the No. 1 overall pick in the vast majority of fantasy leagues. The two-time MVP is the rare combination of extreme upside and extreme safety. He’s finished as the No. 1 overall player in three straight seasons (per-game and total value), and prior to that run finished third, sixth and ninth overall.
Jokić did see a slight downturn in games played last season (69), but with so many elite players missing significant time, the effects were relatively minimal. Through eight years in the league, Jokić has logged an average of 74.5 games per season. Of course, landing Jokić will likely require you to hold the No. 1 pick. If that’s the case, don’t overthink it.
Honorable mention: Jayson Tatum, SF/PF, Boston Celtics (ADP: 5.5) – Tatum may not carry the same No. 1 overall player upside as Jokić, but he’s established a reputation as a rock-solid first-round pick. His durability has made him a top-eight player in three straight seasons, despite finishing as a top-10 player per-game only once in that span.
While it’s fair to quibble about some of Young’s deficiencies as a real-life player, the reality is that he’s been a fantasy monster for virtually his entire five-year career. After finishing just inside the top-35 as a rookie, Young has logged four straight top-15 seasons, including a pair of top-five finishes.
For a player of his size and stature, Young has been remarkably durable, playing an average of 70.6 games per season, including 76 in 2021-22 and 73 a year ago. In roto leagues, Young’s field-goal percentage can be damaging (42.9% FG last season), but he offsets it with an elite free-throw percentage on high-volume (career 90.3% FT; 8.8 FTA/G last season). The Oklahoma product has also been an elite assists contributor, though managers are hoping that he can return to being closer to a 3.0-threes-per-game player after hitting only 2.1 per game in 2022-23.
Honorable mention: Anthony Edwards, SG/SF, Timberwolves (ADP: 14.6) – We’re only three years into Edwards’ career, but for the most part he’s dodged injuries and demonstrated notable improvement in each season. After starring for Team USA over the summer, all signs point to Edwards taking another leap toward superstardom. Last season, Edwards appeared in 79 games and posted career-high counting stats across the board. If he can improve his so-so free-throw shooting (career 77.3% FT), he’ll be an even more valuable asset in roto formats.
The third round is typically home to some of my favorite high-floor targets, headlined by Adebayo. The big man is yet to stretch his shooting out to the three-point line, but that’s the only glaring weakness in his fantasy profile. Earlier in his career, Adebayo was somewhat of a liability at the charity stripe, but he shot a career-best 80.6 percent from the line last season on 5.4 attempts per game.
Like most of the players on this list, Adebayo’s durability has been a major part of the reason he’s consistently outplayed his ADP. Save for missing a month-and-a-half in 2021-22 due to a thumb injury, Adebayo has been exceedingly healthy to begin his NBA career. He bounced back with 75 games played a year ago, propelling him to a top-20 finish in roto leagues and a 28th-overall finish in points formats. In terms of per-game value, Adebayo has ranked 32nd, 34th, 21st and 31st, respectively, over the last four seasons.
Honorable mention: Pascal Siakam, PF/C, Toronto Raptors (ADP: 29.3) – A top-35 player in four of the last five seasons, Siakam has grown into one of the safest bets in fantasy basketball. The 29-year-old is coming off a season in which he averaged a career-best 24.2 points per game to go with 7.8 boards, 5.8 assists, 0.9 steals and 1.3 threes per game. With Fred VanVleet in Houston, Siakam could be tasked with even more offensive responsibility this time around. While he’s susceptible to missing a few games here and there, Siakam is the type of player fantasy managers will rarely regret drafting at ADP.
Oftentimes, he’s a late-third-round pick, but Brown’s ADP has officially slipped into Round 4 territory in Yahoo leagues. Thanks in part to the fact that most fantasy leagues do not subtract points for errant left-handed dribbles, Brown has finished comfortably inside the top 40 in three straight seasons.
A year ago, he shot a career-best 49.1 percent from the field en route to 26.6 points per game (also a career best) to go with 6.9 boards, 3.5 assists, 1.1 steals and 2.4 threes. While free-throw percentage remains a hindrance in roto leagues, Brown becomes even more valuable in points formats. The arrival of Kristaps Porziņģis could siphon some of Brown’s usage, but even if we bake in a slight decline in scoring and rebounds, Brown still projects as a fantasy safety blanket.
Honorable mention: Nikola Vucevic, C, Chicago Bulls (ADP: 44.1): Sometimes it feels like Vucevic gets lost in the general malaise that is the Chicago Bulls franchise. But experienced fantasy managers know just how valuable he’s been for the bulk of his career. Vucevic has been among the most durable players at his position, logging at least 70 games in five of the last seven seasons, including 2022-23 when he was one of only three players (Mikal Bridges, Harrison Barnes) to start all 82. Now entering his age-33 season, it’s fair to question whether Vucevic will begin to decline, but even with some baked-in regression he makes for an easy selection in the middle of Round 4 (43.7 ADP).
Whether or not Randle is truly a “winning player” may still be up for debate, but he’s made for an excellent fantasy pick for most of his career. Carrying an ADP in the mid-60s into last season, Randle appeared in 77 games and logged his second career top-30 fantasy finish. Thanks to a sub-par free-throw percentage (74.8% FT), Randle ranked even higher (23rd overall) in points leagues. Since his rookie season, when he broke his leg on Opening Night, Randle has averaged 74.3 games per season.
Honorable mention: Alperen Şengün, C, Houston Rockets (ADP: 60.3) – While Şengün is only entering his third NBA season, he’s stayed mostly healthy through two years (17 total missed games) and made a major leap in 2022-23. He may not have the longest track record, but Şengün’s role with the new-look Rockets should be safe, making him an especially attractive option in points leagues.
As we move outside the top 60, here is where we start to see significantly more variance — and rightfully so. In the midst of that uncertainty sits Wagner, who typically comes off the board near the end of Round 6. We’re only two years into his career, but thus far he’s missed only four games, offering managers a combination of a high floor and a diversified stat profile. In Year 2, Wagner upped his scoring by 3.6 points per game, improved as a passer, and maintained his strong field goal percentage (48.5% FG) despite a jump in usage rate.
Orlando’s offense will revolve around Paolo Banchero, but Wagner is the perfect, low-maintenance, complementary piece alongside the budding second-year star. Wagner’s percentages make him a better asset in roto leagues, but he’s still worth targeting in the middle rounds in points formats.
Honorable mention: Rudy Gobert, C, Minnesota Timberwolves (ADP: 64.4): I know, I know. No one wants to draft Gobert this season. Believe me, as someone who paid up for him in a salary cap league a year ago, I feel your pain. With that said, I think we have to consider last season as the baseline for Gobert. His numbers dropped across the board — most notably his shot-blocking — but Gobert still finished 65th in per-game value (roto) and 66th in points leagues. In contrast to last season, when you had to burn a second or third-round pick on the big man, Gobert is coming at a massive discount this time around. His best days could very well be behind him, but Gobert should still offer a decent floor at ADP.
In his first full season with the Pelicans, the veteran went through some uncharacteristic ups and downs – most notably, shooting just 40.7 percent from the field for a 20-game stretch in November and December. But as the year went along, McCollum returned to form and went on to average at least 20 points per game for the eighth consecutive season.
He may not offer a ton on the defensive end (1.4 steals/blocks in 2022-23), but McCollum is a solid source of rebounds, and his transition to point guard has led to an uptick in assists. At age 32, it’s possible that injuries could begin to become more of an issue, but it’s tough to argue with McCollum’s track record of eight straight top-70 finishes.
Honorable mention: Buddy Hield, SG/SF, Indianapolis Pacers (ADP: 81.3) – Perennially one of my favorite players to roster, Hield is always one of the most underrated players in roto leagues, due in large part to his high-volume three-point shooting. Since he entered the league in 2016-17, Hield ranks No. 1 in games played (548 — 23 more than anyone else) and No. 2 in made threes (1,705, behind only Stephen Curry). Trade talks might add some cloudiness to his outlook this season, however.
Round 8: Tobias Harris, SF/PF, Philadelphia 76ers (ADP: 90.7)
In some ways, it feels like this entire article has been building toward this moment. Of course Tobias Harris is getting a mention. Arguably the safest mid-round fantasy pick of the last decade, Harris has finished between 23rd and 58th in total value (roto) in each of the last nine seasons. During that span, he’s played at least 72 games seven times and at least 80 games three times.
Last season, Harris saw his usage rate take a dive (career-low 18.2%), but he still produced a well-rounded stat line punctuated by elite percentages (50/39/88). If James Harden remains in Philly, that trend could repeat itself again, but if the Sixers do move Harden at some point, Harris would be first in line for a boost in offensive output.
Round 9: Jonas Valančiūnas, C, New Orleans Pelicans (ADP: 96.0)
At this point in your draft, “safety” is a relative term. Around pick 100, most of the high-floor options are already long gone, but Valančiūnas represents something of a safety valve — especially for managers who are light on center-eligible players. While the big man’s numbers took a dip at age 30 last season, Valančiūnas reached the 70-game mark for the third time in four years. His 79 appearances propelled him into the top 75 in roto leagues, as well as a top-100 finish in points formats. There’s reasonable concern that Valančiūnas’ role could further diminish if Zion Williamson stays healthy, but that’s proven to be a risky proposition in its own right.
Round 10: Ivica Zubac, C, Los Angeles Clippers (ADP: 120.5)
Another big man I frequently find myself targeting later in drafts, Zubac doesn’t offer anything flashy, but he’s quietly been a steady fantasy contributor for the last three-plus seasons. He’s been a top-100 roto league player in three straight seasons and offers similar value in points leagues, though managers don’t benefit from his 60-plus-percent FG%. If you’re chasing the classic big-man categories, or just some bankable points-league value, Zubac is your man. Over the past four seasons, he’s missed only 12 total games.