The conclusion of the college basketball season now paves the way for the NBA to take center stage in its final week before the postseason. Action resumes Tuesday night with a 13-game slate featuring a few teams still jockeying for playoff position. In the Eastern Conference, five teams have clinched playoff spots with the sixth seed up for grabs between the Brooklyn Nets and Miami Heat. Brooklyn currently holds a two-game lead over Miami. If the Heat want to have any chance of catching the Nets and avoiding the play-in tournament, it’s imperative they come away with a win Tuesday night against the lowly Pistons.
Both Brooklyn and Miami are in nice motivational spots, but should we trust both as favorites? Here is how I’m betting these key matchups.
Miami Heat -12.5 at Detroit Pistons
All four of the Heat’s final games are important, but they have to know it’s critical to handle business in this one, as any hope of avoiding the play-in evaporates with a loss. It’s the first game of a three-game road trip, and a great opportunity to build some momentum before traveling to Philadelphia. Detroit has lost nine straight, including an embarrassing 128-102 loss to Orlando on Sunday. The 26-point loss was the third time in the last six games the Pistons failed to stay within 20 points of their opponent. Detroit allowed Orlando to shoot 17-of-33 (51%) from beyond the arc and have the third-worst defense rating in the NBA.
Regardless of the Pistons’ poor play, laying double-digits with a road favorite is never an easy bet to make. However, these are the motivational spots where I’m willing to make the tough bet on Miami. I am confident Butler will set the tone early to ensure this opportunity won’t slip away from Miami in a must-win situation. Miami won at Detroit, 112-100, just a few weeks ago after trailing by seven after three quarters. The Heat’s ability to comeback and still win by a wide margin makes me confident that they can run away this time with a more focused effort from the jump. Detroit has only won 14.5% of its games (7-41) against Eastern Conference opponents, and the Pistons aren’t good enough defensively to keep Miami from pulling away early this time around. The bet: Miami -12.5
Things got bad in a hurry for Minnesota. Less than a week ago, the T’Wolves were coming off consecutive wins over the Warriors and Kings. Anthony Edwards, Karl-Anthony Towns and Rudy Gobert were all finally healthy, making Minnesota an interesting bet to avoid the play-in by forcing its way into a playoff spot. Now, after three consecutive losses, the T’Wolves are barely qualifying for the play-in tournament. Towns is dealing with a calf injury, and the Wolves are reeling after blowing a 12-point third-quarter lead Sunday in a loss to Portland, of all teams.
Those are the types of losses that linger. I can’t get bet that Minnesota is able to shake off such an embarrassing loss and get the job done against a solid Brooklyn team that is equally motivated on its home court. Since March 1, the Nets are a respectable 13th in net rating (2.2), and they have won four of their last five as Mikal Bridges continues to flourish in his new role. Bridges is coming off a 30-point, seven-rebound performance in a one-point win against the Jazz on Sunday. Neither team can run you off the perimeter, but Brooklyn, a top-five 3-point shooting team, is much more likely to create open looks and take advantage on its home court. The spiral continues for the Timberwolves. The bet: Brooklyn -1.5