The Miami Heat have been underdogs in the eyes of the oddsmakers throughout the postseason, even in the instances when they have been the home team.
It happened in the first round vs. the Milwaukee Bucks and it happened in the Eastern Conference Finals vs. the Boston Celtics, so why wouldn’t it remain the case for Game 3 of the NBA Finals vs. the Denver Nuggets?
Denver took Game 1 before the Heat had a spirited fourth-quarter rally in Game 2 to tie the series at 1-1. Now with the series shifted back to Miami, the Heat are 2.5-point underdogs for Game 3 at BetMGM.
The Heat were underdogs in six of the seven Eastern Conference Finals meetings with the Celtics and will hold onto that same role for the first three games of the Finals. In fact, Miami has been the underdog in 16 of its 19 games this postseason. In those games, Miami is 12-4 against the spread and 10-6 straight-up. As a home underdog, the Heat are 4-0 ATS and 3-1 straight-up.
Needless to say, backing the Heat has been a profitable venture over the last two months. Will it continue on Tuesday night?
The series odds have shifted pretty considerably as well. The Nuggets ballooned to -700 favorites after winning Game 1, but are now just -275 with the series evened up. The Heat’s odds moved from +500 to +220.
Busy day in MLB
There are 15 games on the Major League Baseball slate for Tuesday.
One of the hottest teams in baseball is the Texas Rangers. Since losing four straight in late April, the Rangers have been on a tear. They’re 25-9 since that losing skid and are currently in the midst of a homestand with the St. Louis Cardinals. The Rangers just swept a three-game series with the Seattle Mariners and are looking to do the same with the Cards.
After pulling out a 4-3 win on Monday night, the Rangers are -145 favorites for Game 2 of the series. The Cardinals are +120.
A streaking National League team that has been a surprise to this point in the season is the Pittsburgh Pirates, who are currently in first place in the NL Central. Winners of six straight, they are -250 favorites over the Oakland A’s, the worst team in baseball.
Stanley Cup odds update
The Vegas Golden Knights blasted the Florida Panthers 7-2 on Monday night in Las Vegas to take a commanding 2-0 lead in the Stanley Cup Finals.
The series heads to Florida for Game 3 on Thursday and the Golden Knights are now massive favorites to hoist the Cup. Vegas is listed at -500 at BetMGM with the Panthers at +400.
The Panthers overcame a 3-1 deficit to the top-seeded Boston Bruins in the first round. Now they’re facing a series deficit on an even bigger stage. Can they mount another comeback?
What’s the best bet?
I’m going to play the Nuggets -1.5 in the first half at -105.
In Game 2, Miami was able to limit Denver’s supporting cast around Nikola Jokic. Jokic had 41 points but only four assists as Jamal Murray had only 18 and Aaron Gordon, Michael Porter Jr. and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope combined for just 23 points.
Even with the complementary players having an off night compared to Game 1, the Nuggets held an eight-point lead entering the fourth quarter but allowed the Heat to outscore them 36-25 in the final quarter.
After a disappointing fourth-quarter performance, I expect the Nuggets to come out with a lot of fight.
