It’s a wonderful thing when a franchise wins an NBA championship for the first time. All those losing seasons and horrible draft day decisions are forgotten as “maybe next year” finally comes true. It’s pure bliss and I’m betting that no fan base experiences that this season.
They say the 54th time is the charm
Eleven franchises have never won the whole shebang. If you look at NBA futures on BetMGM, you can bet a “New Champion” prop that one of the Clippers, Grizzlies, Hornets, Jazz, Magic, Nets, Nuggets, Pacers, Pelicans, Suns or Timberwolves will win the NBA Finals. It pays even money. If you think one of the other 19 teams will claim the Larry O’Brien trophy, you can take “any other team to win the NBA finals” at -125. That’s the side I’m on.
Math and logic
Instead of analyzing all the teams involved in this bet and handicapping it that way, let’s take a look at this wager through the lens of math and logic.
First of all, fading teams like the Clippers, Hornets, Magic, Pacers, Pelicans, and Timberwolves doesn’t concern me at all, as each of them carries implied odds of 1% or less to win it all. I’m also not that worried about a Nuggets squad missing Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr.
By taking “any other team,” I’m getting four of the top six current odds-on favorites to win the title, in the co-favorite Warriors (+450), reigning champ Bucks (+550), Sixers (+700), and Heat (+1100).
Maybe the best part of this wager is that I have an 81.8% chance to be holding a live ticket once we get to the NBA Finals and a decent shot of cashing it before then. Seven of the 11 teams I’m fading are in the West. If I’m only worried about Brooklyn in the East, then I just need them to not make the Finals in order to have a guaranteed live ticket regardless of whoever wins the West. The Nets’ implied odds of winning the East are 26.3%. Even if Brooklyn manages to appear in the Finals, the co-favorite Warriors could save my bet slip by meeting them there. I love this bet at -125.
