It’s the matchup that had seemed destined since before the season started, the two WNBA super teams colliding in a star-studded showdown: A’Ja Wilson, Kelsey Plum, Jackie Young and Chelsea Grey vs. MVP Breanna Stewart, Sabrina Ionescu, Jonquel Jones and Courtney Vandersloot.
In a year where the WNBA’s popularity has grown exponentially, this is the Finals the league has needed. It should be one for the ages, let’s break it down.
WNBA PLAYOFFS FINALS SCHEDULE
Las Vegas Aces (1) vs. New York Liberty (2)
Game 1: At Las Vegas, Oct. 3 p.m. ET, ABC
Game 2: At Las Vegas, Oct. 11, 9 p.m. ET, ESPN
Game 3: At New York, Oct. 15, 3 p.m. ET, ABC
Game 4*: at New York, Oct. 18, 8 p.m. ET, ESPN
Game 5*: At Las Vegas, Friday, Oct. 20, 9 p.m. ET, ESPN
*If necessary
Three Things to Watch:
A’Ja Wilson vs. Breanna Stewart
If the WNBA is going to grow along the path of the NBA’s success, it needs superstars. More than that, it needs superstar rivalries. LeBron vs. Curry. Magic vs. Bird.
Stewart vs. Wilson can be that kind of epic rivalry. They are both collegiate legends — Stewart won four national titles at UConn, Wilson lifted South Carolina to elite status in the NCAA and won the Gamecock’s first title — and have won four of the last six WNBA MVP awards. They have met in three of the previous four postseasons.
This is the biggest stage yet. It’s a showcase moment for the WNBA’s transcendent stars, whose play will be at the heart of this series. Wilson has been the most dominant player this postseason averaging 25.8 points on 59.5% shooting while grabbing 11.2 rebounds and blocking 3.2 shots a game. She has been more efficient than Stewart when the teams have met this season — but the Liberty have won three of those four games. For the Aces to defend their title, Wilson has to be dominant and the series MVP.
If the Liberty are going to get their first crown, it has to start with Stewart living up to her regular season MVP. New York is the deeper squad but Stewart is the lynchpin.
Ionescu, Grey, Jones — who steps up?
While Stewart vs. Wilson is the main event — and the winner of that showdown gives her team a leg up — the team holding the trophy in the end will be the one whose second stars (and maybe a role player) steps up.
Sabrina Ionescu’s shooting could be the difference, she drained at least 3-pointers in three matchups against the Aces this year and if she does that again it could break the Aces’ defense. Chelsea Grey is maybe the best clutch player in the league and the Aces are the defending champions because she was the Finals MVP a season ago — Las Vegas needs a repeat performance from her. If Grey isn’t a force, it will be because of the defense of Betnijah Laney, another star who could decide this series.
However, the Liberty’s Jonquel Jones is the ultimate X factor. The former MVP can become a force in the paint that the Aces would struggle to defend. Jones has picked up her game in the postseason averaging 11.3 points and 8.4 rebounds a game — if she is racking up double-doubles, owning the paint and forcing Aces defenders to sag off the Liberty’s shooters, there can be a ticker tape parade in Manhattan.
Coaching chess match
The Liberty and Aces are here not just because of their top-end stars like Wilson and Stewart but because they are the league’s two most versatile rosters. The majority of WNBA teams can only win — or defend — playing one style, one way, but the Liberty and Aces can win in a variety of styles. New York’s defensive adjustments in the semi-finals were the difference against the Connecticut Sun.
All this puts pressure on the Aces’ Becky Hammon and the Liberty’s Sandy Brondello to come up with the adjustments that will decide this series — and possibly to lean into their depth (these have been top-heavy teams in the playoffs).
For example, Hammon and the Aces have leaned on Kiah Stokes all season since Candace Parker went down injured, but the 6’3″ center has struggled in matchups with the Liberty. The Aces have had more success playing smaller against New York with 5’11” Alysha Clark, will Hammon lean into Clark and how quickly in the series? On the other bench, will Brondello need to use a zone defense to help keep the Aces out of the paint?
This is a true coaching chess match and the adjustments could decide who is standing under a rain of confetti after the final game.
PREDICTION: Liberty in four. This is a coin toss of a series and I almost picked the Aces in five, but when these teams faced off in August we could see how New York is built to handle Las Vegas. Stewart will be Stewart, but Ionescu’s shooting, Laney’s defense and my pick for finals MVP Jones will prove to be more than the Aces can match up with.