Despite Chicago’s success last season before losing Lonzo Ball to a knee injury, there was still some doubt about the core’s ability to win sustainably. Those concerns reared this season after finishing around .500 and barely making the play-in Tournament with a mostly identical roster to last season. They still have enough talent in this core to remain in the playoff mix, but probably not enough high-end talent to make a meaningful postseason run.
Here is a preview of the 2023 offseason for the Bulls.
State of the roster and how the new CBA affects them
(Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images)
Chicago’s books are in good shape and don’t appear to be imminently impacted by some of the new CBA changes. They should be able to run back nearly the entire roster while remaining below the luxury tax next season. The challenge then becomes improving the roster beyond the current level of talent. Assuming their Top 4 protected first-round pick conveys to Orlando this year, they will be limited to trading just one conditional first-round pick. The combination of the Bulls’ tax proximity and their lack of trade ammo could prevent significant additions to their roster.
By the time the Bulls were at their low of seven games below .500 in December, speculation followed on the possibility of them blowing the roster up ahead of the trade deadline. Such a turn less than two years after putting this team together was not an option, especially considering how well this group played the year before. But that possibility could circle back if they play below expectations again next year.
The pressure is mounting, however, with time running out on some players. Nikola Vucevic, whom the Bulls traded Wendell Carter Jr. and two lottery picks for, is an unrestricted free agent and is looking like a sunk cost. DeMar DeRozan has one year left on his deal and could be looking at one more big contract. A decision will also have to be made on Patrick Williams soon with restricted free agency upcoming.
Bringing back or extending all these players seems like the plan for now. The Eastern Conference has gotten stronger above the play-in mix and could be even tougher next year. The Bulls could go into 2023-24 with mostly the same roster to compete with the possibility to pivot if they continue to struggle. They could become one of the most active sellers by next year’s trade deadline and acquire plenty of draft picks and prospects to jumpstart their next cycle.
If the Bulls do decide to blow it up at some point next year, they could be in a position to generate significant cap space in 2024. This could include trading all their veterans, including ones like Zach LaVine and Alex Caruso, who have multiple seasons left on their contracts. Those two, along with DeRozan, have the most trade value on the roster and alone can bring back a lot of positive value.
Free agents
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Nikola Vucevic is Chicago’s biggest-name free agent. They acquired him from the Magic when his trade value was at its peak and he hasn’t played to his old All-Star level since arriving in Chicago. That’s a problem considering how much they gave up for him. They’ll probably be on the lookout for an upgrade at backup center but may have no choice but to also re-sign him unless they can trade for an upgrade.
What Vucevic’s next contract could look like remains the big question. He is currently eligible to extend through June 30 but the lack of a deal thus far suggests both sides will take this to free agency. It’s hard to identify a cap space team that makes sense for him, which means he would either need to re-sign or extend with the Bulls, or get sign-and-traded to get a contract in his current salary range. He could be looking at a market correction with centers like Ivica Zubac, Steven Adams, Clint Capela, and Jonas Valanciunas all earning less than him.
Ayo Dosunmu is one of Chicago’s more interesting free agents. When the Bulls drafted him in 2021, they used the majority of their mid-level exception on Caruso and had just enough to give a three or four-year deal to either Dosunmu or Marko Simonovic. They signed Simonovic with it, leaving Dosunmu with just a two-year minimum deal. Instead of having him earn a minimum salary for one more season, they are now looking at giving him a significant raise this summer.
Dosunmu will be a restricted free agent this offseason with a $5.2 million qualifying offer after meeting the starter’s criteria. Like with Lakers guard Austin Reaves, Dosunmu will be subject to the Gilbert Arenas provision. The Bulls are limited to re-signing him to a maximum of four years, projected at $51 million, but another team with cap space could offer more. From the Bulls’ perspective, any such deal they match would have him earning the mid-level exception for the first two years, followed by a larger third and fourth-year salary, depending on how big the offer sheet is.
After Vucevic and Dosunmu, the Bulls may have some tough decisions to make. With Ball expected to miss most or all of next season, they need as much guard depth as possible. But if Vucevic and Dosunmu are re-signed, they may have to choose between bringing back Coby White and Patrick Beverley. White will be easier to retain since they have his full Bird rights and can make him a restricted free agent if they tender him a $7.7 million qualifying offer.
Beverley was a major addition to the Bulls’ rotation and led them to a 14-9 record since joining them. He does a lot of the same things Ball does and has been a solid replacement for him. They only have his Non Bird rights, limiting them to re-signing him to a $3.2 million minimum salary, or a $3.8 million salary with his Non-Bird rights. They would have to dip into their mid-level exception to offer him more, but they may want to reserve it for a backup big man.
Extensions
(AP Photo/Nick Wass)
If the Bulls are bringing most of their rotation players back next year, they might as well lock up some of their veterans to long-term extensions. Most notably, DeRozan will be extension-eligible next season for up to four years, $179.4 million, which would run through his age 38 season. The fourteen-year veteran is playing the best stretch of basketball of his career in Chicago with two All-Star selections and 3rd Team All-NBA honors last season
DeRozan has vastly outplayed the value of his contract and could be looking at a significant raise. He might’ve been worth a $40+ million these past two seasons but giving him that kind of extension this late into his career would be risky. The Bulls could be looking to offer him something in the 2-3 year range for slightly more than he’s currently making.
Patrick Williams is eligible to sign a rookie-scale extension this summer up until the day before the regular season begins. He hasn’t developed to the level of player the Bulls expected which will complicate negotiations. He should continue to develop and improve but at this point, they likely reached on him when they selected him with the fourth overall pick in the 2020 Draft. It feels like a good bet that no extension will be reached and they circle back when Williams becomes a restricted free agent in 2024.
Alex Caruso will also be extension-eligible during the offseason for up to three years, projected at $53.2 million. He was intended to be Chicago’s top guard off the bench but has played his way to starting and closing. He played a significant role in helping the Bulls finish with the 5th best defense in the league, and there’s a strong chance he is named one of the four All-Defensive guards. This would make this summer a good opportunity for him to capitalize on his success if he wants more long-term security.
2023-24 SALARY SITUATION
Players rostered: 10
Guaranteed salaries: $118.5 million
Non-guaranteed salaries: $3.8 million
Total salary: $122.3 million
Luxury tax space: $39.8 million
Apron space: $46.2 million
Second apron space: $70256.2 million
Spending power:
Zach LaVine
Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports
2023-24 salary: $40,064,220
Remaining salary guaranteed: $178,063,200 through 2026-27
Additional notes:
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15 percent trade bonus currently worth $407,340
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2026-27 salary is a $49 million player option
DeMar DeRozan
Quinn Harris-USA TODAY Sports
2023-24 salary: $28,600,000
Remaining salary guaranteed: $28,600,000
Additional notes:
Lonzo Ball
Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports
2023-24 salary: $20,465,117
Remaining salary guaranteed: $41,860,465 through 2024-25
Additional notes:
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Extension-eligible during offseason
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$1 million in unlikely incentives
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Expected to miss most or all of 2023-24. Bulls could apply for Disabled Player Exception worth $10.2 million
Patrick Williams
Quinn Harris-USA TODAY Sports
2023-24 salary: $9,835,81
Remaining salary guaranteed: $9,835,81
Additional notes:
Alex Caruso
Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports
2023-24 salary: $9,460,000
Remaining salary guaranteed: $12,460,000 through 2024-25
Additional notes:
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2024-25 salary is $3 million guaranteed. Fully guaranteed if not waived by June 30, 2024
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Extension-eligible during offseason for up to three years, projected at $54 million
Andre Drummond
Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports
2023-24 salary: $3,360,000 (player option)
Remaining salary guaranteed: $3,360,000
Derrick Jones Jr.
Andrew Wevers-USA TODAY Sports
2023-24 salary: $3,360,000 (player option)
Remaining salary guaranteed: $3,360,000
Dalen Terry
2023-24 salary: $3,350,760
Remaining salary guaranteed: $12,260,358 through 2025-26
Carlik Jones
2023-24 salary: $1,927,896
Remaining salary guaranteed: $0
Additional notes:
Marko Simonovic
(AP Photo/Marta Lavandier)
2023-24 salary: $1,836,096
Remaining salary guaranteed: $0
Additional notes:
Nikola Vucevic
Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports
Cap hold: $33,000,000
Type of free agent: Bird (unrestricted)
Additional notes:
Coby White
Jamie Sabau-USA TODAY Sports
Cap hold: $22,241,865
Type of free agent: Bird (restricted)
Additional notes:
Ayo Dosunmu
Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports
Cap hold: $5,216,324
Type of free agent: Early Bird (restricted)
Additional notes:
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Qualifying offer: $5,216,324
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Bulls can re-sign him for a maximum of four years, projected at $54 million
Patrick Beverley
Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports
Cap hold: $1,989,698
Type of free agent: Non Bird (unrestricted)
Javonte Green
Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports
Cap hold: $1,989,698
Type of free agent: Bird (unrestricted)
Justin Lewis
Cap hold: $1,774,999
Type of free agent: Non Bird (restricted)
Terry Taylor
Cap hold: $1,774,999
Type of free agent: Non Bird (restricted)
Story originally appeared on HoopsHype