If it ain’t broken, don’t fix it. The NBA has been good to us this week, so let’s continue to cash in on the momentum. Best bets went 2-0 last night as the Detroit Pistons continued to play the underdog role to perfection, extending their current run to 16-1 ATS. The Wizards and Bulls offenses struggled as expected, barely breaking 200 combined points, providing us with an easy win on the under.
Pivotal conference matchups, with playoff implications, bookend Wednesday night’s 11-game schedule. Phoenix hosts the spiraling Warriors while the Heat tries to finally solve a Celtics defense that has given them fits all season. You are starting to be able to feel that playoff atmosphere now that time is running out on the regular season. Tuesday night’s battle between the Bucks and the Sixers was a perfect example of the intensity ramping up.
Milwaukee edged out Philadelphia 118-116 in a game decided on a last-second block by MVP candidate Giannis Antetokounmpo on fellow MVP contender Joel Embiid. After spending countless hours over the last several months handicapping rest days, bettors are starting to be able to count on the consistency that we have yearned for all season. It’s a sight for sore eyes, but we still have to be measured in how we pick our spots on the board. I circled a road favorite who is holding an edge in motivation with a total that is discrediting one of the hottest offenses in the NBA. Here is the breakdown of my two best bets for Wednesday night.
All odds via BetMGM.
Indiana has lost their last four games to teams with winning records by the following margins: 9, 40, 30 and 33. While the Pacers are polishing up their golf clubs and pricing resorts, the Denver Nuggets are fighting for their playoff lives. With Minnesota only two games away from pushing Denver into the play-in tournament, the Nuggets cannot afford to show any mercy in this matchup.
You better be able to score if you’re covering a big number as a road favorite, and I’m confident the Denver offense delivers in a big way. Indiana has allowed 130-plus points in five of its last seven games, with the lowly Blazers and Rockets as the two teams that didn’t completely go off and score at will. The Nuggets come into this game hot with the fourth-best offensive rating over the last five games, scoring 120.5 points per 100 possessions. Nikola Jokic smells blood in the water of the MVP race after Embiid’s big-game loss Tuesday night. Jokic will seize the opportunity to put up a huge night to create more separation in the eyes of the voters. It’s hard for me to imagine the Pacers fighting for all four quarters. Lay the big number with the Nuggets.
Miami Heat at Boston Celtics (Over 214.5)
Two of the Eastern conference’s top defenses going at each other with the No. 1 seed on the line screams under, but not so fast. The motivation is there, as neither team wants to end up with the second seed and potentially draw the Brooklyn Nets as a first-round opponent. That only takes you so far, as Miami’s injuries during the season are starting to show up on defense as the team struggles to get on the same page. That is a significant concern heading into the playoffs and not something that disappears after one win over the Kings. I can see the wounds getting ripped open by the hottest team in the NBA, causing clipboards to fly again on the Miami bench.
Recently, the Celtics are 6-0 to the over and should have a well-rested Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown returning to action. Tatum has recently exploded, scoring 33.4 points over his last 10 games, while leading Boston’s offense to the best rating in the NBA for the month of March. The last time these two teams played at the end of January, they combined for 214 points as the Celtics cruised to a 30-point win. I don’t think there is a big enough adjustment on the total to reflect the recent success of the Boston offense. The injury to Robert Williams will hurt the Celtics on the glass, but not enough to slow them down against a familiar foe. I am playing this game to go over the total with the expectation that Boston does the heavy lifting while Miami keeps it competitive.
Stats provided by nba.com, evanalytics.com, and teamrankings.com.
