For its season preview series, NBC Sports is focusing on teams at a crossroads, franchises where this season feels like now or never — either it works, or big changes could be coming. Up next: The New Orleans Pelicans.
Who are the New Orleans Pelicans?
Are they the team that started 23-14 and was sitting third in the West on Jan. 2, 2023? Or are they the team 17-26 the rest of the way and were bounced one game into the play-in?
The answer is both — the team before Jan. 2 had a healthy Zion Williamson on the court, averaging 26 points and seven rebounds a game, shooting 60.8%. Williamson injured his hamstring on Jan. 2 and without him or Brandon Ingram (long lingering toe injury) for much of the rest of the way they went 17-26, scraped their way into play-in as the 10 seed and were done after one game.
It’s no secret that the only question that really matters around the Pelicans is: Can Zion Williamson stay healthy?
Every other question around New Orleans flows out of Zion’s health status. Is Brandon Ingram a true No. 2 for this team? Nobody can tell until he stays healthy and plays next to Zion for an extended stretch. Is Jonas Valanciunas the right center for this roster as he heads into a contract season? We need to see an extended run next to Zion and Ingram to figure that out. The list goes on and on, but at its core we simply do not know how far the trio of Zion, Ingram and CJ McCollum — with the underrated Trey Murphy III as the shooting glue this roster needs — can go.
The pressure to answer that question long-term is amplified this season. What makes this a now-or-never season for this franchise is it is approaching an expensive pivot point with the players around Zion. And maybe, ultimately, Zion himself.
The Pelicans are a small market team about to get very expensive — Zion, Ingram and McCollum all already make at least $33.8 million and extensions for Ingram and Murphy (still on his rookie contract) come up next summer, with McCollum right behind them. Decisions will need to be made.
Can Zion Williamson stay healthy? Focused?
The Pelicans had a very quiet offseason— re-signing Herbert Jones (four years, $53.8 million) was their biggest move — and being quiet and running it back was the right move. New Orleans can’t make decisions about its future until it knows what it has.
And it can’t know what it has without Zion staying healthy.
New Orleans needs Zion on the court. Pelican executive vice president of basketball operations David Griffin and Zion himself are saying all the right things, for what that’s worth. Via Andrew Lopez of ESPN:
“Zion is obviously in good condition. The thing I think is important is CJ [McCollum] and Brandon [Ingram], throughout their careers, have always employed people to take care of their body, to take care of their nutrition. They are really invested in their profession. This was the first summer where we’ve seen Zion take his profession seriously like that and invest in it off the court on his own in a way that I think is meaningful.”
Zion echoed that.
“Worked on movements, staying in New Orleans for a good part of the summer working with the Pels and being on the same page with them and my personal trainers. But just really locking into every aspect of my body.”
Those are good words, but it’s the actions and a little luck that matters — and luck has already gone against them with Trey Murphy III suffering a meniscus injury during training that will have him out likely for at least the first month of the season. Murphy turned heads around the league with his play in his second season (a lot of other front-office people around the league think he might be a future All-Star), and his shooting is critical to spacing the floor and making the Zion/Ingram/McCollum trio work.
Then there was Zion’s off-the-court baby drama this summer — could the social media buzz cause him to lose focus? The Pelicans need to keep his mind in the game.
Keep Zion or trade him?
The Pelicans have Zion locked up on what is a reasonable contract for a superstar — if he can consistently be that. Zion’s five-year max contract extension kicks in this season, starting at $34 million, and while that is a lot of money by the end of this contract it’s expected to be about 24% of the salary cap or less. It’s not a crazy supermax, the Pelicans can build around this.
Should they build around him? Rumors of the Pelicans putting Zion in the mix for a trade to get a top-three pick (and Scoot Henderson) were out there during the NBA Draft, although Griffin vehemently denied them. Whatever the Pelicans say, the Knicks and other teams are reportedly monitoring the situation in New Orleans with the belief the Pelicans are not sold on Zion long term. If the Pelicans want to explore this path, there would be big offers for the young forward, trades that would jumpstart another rebuild.
The fact those offers are so big might show why the Pelicans want to hold on to him — the pre-Jan. 2, healthy Zion of last season is the cornerstone of a contender. Teams — particularly smaller market teams — just can’t trade him away.
This is a now-or-never season because the secondary questions for building around Zion are coming fast — Ingram and Murphy are both extension eligible next summer and this team could get very expensive (Ingram is technically extension eligible now but doesn’t want to discuss it until next summer). Valanciunas will be an unrestricted free agent next summer, should the Pelicans trade him (which they explored this summer), re-sign him, or just let him walk? After letting center Jaxson Hayes head to the Lakers this summer, what is the plan at the five for the Pelicans? What do they do with Kira Lewis Jr. as he heads into restricted free agency?
All those questions hinge on Zion’s health and how the Pelicans perform this season. If everyone stays mostly healthy this season for coach Willie Green, this should be a top-six team, even in a deep West. If it’s another season of missed games and hoping to make the play-in, the Griffin and the front office face some hard choices.
One way or another, it’s now or never for these Pelicans. We need to see who they really are.