The Phoenix Suns gave a valiant effort before the Milwaukee Bucks pulled away in the last minute for a 132-122 victory Sunday afternoon. The final score is a little deceiving, as it fails to reflect how competitive Phoenix was while playing on the road without Chris Paul, Devin Booker and Cameron Johnson. Despite being 3-3 in their last six games, the Suns are firmly entrenched as the No.1 seed in the West with an eight-game lead.
The Phoenix Suns are still the team to beat in the West. I can also understand why bettors might look past Phoenix to find better value in the futures market. They are currently co-favorites with Golden State at +180 to be the Western Conference winner. Regardless of how impressive their depth is, the Suns’ season rests on the recovery of Chris Paul’s thumb injury. If you are a bettor who is more comfortable backing teams that are healthy now, there are at least two teams that are worth wagers.
All lines from BetMGM.
Memphis Grizzlies +1200
The Grizzlies are coming off a bad loss to the Rockets on Sunday that moved them to 44-22 on the season. Right on the heels of the Golden State Warriors, Memphis remains in a good position to capture the No.2 seed in the Western Conference. Considering Memphis has one of the weakest remaining schedules in the NBA, it’s a real possibility it will have home-court if it meets Golden State in the Western Conference semifinals. So why is there such a gap in the two teams’ odds to win the West?
The Warriors are co-favorites at +180, while you can bet the Grizzlies at +1200. The odds imply Golden State has a 35% chance of coming out of the West compared to only 7.69% for Memphis. This is too wide of a gap to justify. Draymond Green’s pending return coupled with the experience factor makes Golden State attractive, but this Memphis team can play with anybody.
In the last 15 games, Memphis is top five in both offensive and defensive rating. The Grizzlies have a net rating of 9.5, which is second best in the NBA behind Boston. Last year, Ja Morant got valuable postseason experience and responded by elevating his game to another level. In five playoff games, he averaged over 30 points, which exceeded his season average by more than 10. Year after year, we see stars like Kawhi Leonard and Giannis Antetokounmpo carry their teams out of nowhere to the NBA finals and more. This postseason could be Morant’s time. If you are looking for a dark horse to win the West, Memphis at +1200 is the bet to make.
Long-shot bettors should be keeping their eye on Dallas down the stretch. Winners of 10 of their last 12, the Mavericks are as hot as any team in the NBA. The trade-deadline move that sent Kristaps Porzingis to Washington has yielded immediate benefits with Spencer Dinwiddie thriving in his new home. Luka Doncic is more than happy to shoulder the offensive load, evidenced by his 41-point performance in their win against Golden State last week. Despite Doncic nursing a toe sprain, Dallas has a 117.6 offensive rating since the break. On the defensive side of the floor, the Mavs are more equipped to succeed in the half court without Porzingis. The Mavericks are 18-to-1 for a reason, but they are the only team outside of the top four that can compete with best teams in the West.
