2022-23 NBA award predictions: MVP, Rookie of the Year, and more originally appeared on NBC Sports Washington
When the leaves begin to change, one thing pops into the minds of basketball fans worldwide: the NBA season is afoot.
With the 2022-23 NBA season beginning on Tuesday, it’s time to begin predicting who might take home some of the league’s most treasured individual hardware. Nikola Jokic is fresh off his second consecutive MVP season, but does he have what it takes to become the first three-peat MVP recipient since Larry Bird from 1984-86? Does a certain other center who plays in Philadelphia have a better chance at the award?
Jokic, Curry, James, Antetokounmpo, Embiid, Doncic…the list goes on. From MVP to Rookie of the Year to Coach of the Year, here are some NBC Sports Washington basketball writers’ picks for this season:
2022-23 NBA season award predictions:
Most Valuable Player
Todd: Joel Embiid, C, Philadelphia 76ers
Notes: Pretty safe pick here. Embiid has been the odd man out of MVP voting for about three seasons now. He’s easily a better defensive player than Jokic, and when you have a big man who can put up 30+ points a game and dominate on both ends of the floor, while also leading his team deep into the playoffs, it’d be hard to box him out (pun intended) from the MVP race again. It’s finally Embiid’s time to shine.
Hughes: Luka Doncic, G, Dallas Mavericks
I believe Giannis Antetokounmpo will once again be the best player in the NBA, but as we all know that doesn’t mean he will win the MVP award. Nikola Jokic probably won’t win it, either, because he’s won the last two. So, I’ll go with Luka Doncic, who is one of the very best players in the league and is likely to put up monster numbers on a good team without a true second star. It’s his show and it’s a fun one to watch.
DePrisco: Luka Doncic, G, Dallas Mavericks
It’s only a matter of time before Doncic wins an MVP award, so why not this season? He’s coming off a Western Conference Finals run and the Mavs added more frontcourt help (JaVale McGee, Christian Wood) than backcourt depth following Jalen Brunson’s departure in free agency. Doncic is going to put up eye-popping numbers leading a Dallas team in need of his night-to-night brilliance.
Byrum: Giannis Antetokounmpo, PF, Milwaukee Bucks
Chase said it plainly for me, Giannis Antetokoumpo is the best player in the league. Yes, there are politics involved in league’s voting but he should be the frontrunner. Last year, the Bucks learned how important not taking the regular season seriously cost them and they should be emboldened to rectify that issue this year. To do that, Antetokoumpo is going to need another big season and match his career-high 29.9 points per game from 2021-22.
Rookie of the Year
Todd: Keegan Murray, F, Sacramento Kings
Notes: I think Murray’s situation in Sacramento is picture-perfect for a ROY bid. He’ll immediately have a huge role in their offense alongside De’Aaron Fox, and should provide enough scoring and floor-spacing to put up big numbers as the Kings don’t have a ton of other options down low other than Domantas Sabonis. Orlando’s Paolo Banchero would also be a safe pick, but a No. 1 overall pick hasn’t won ROY since Ben Simmons in 2017-18.
Hughes: Jabari Smith Jr., F, Houston Rockets
I thought Smith Jr. was the best prospect in the draft and, like many, was surprised he fell to three. But he seems to have found a good situation to shine early, as Houston is likely to be very bad and allow him to take a lot of shots and score a lot of points. He was also the leading scorer among rookies in the preseason with insane efficiency, albeit in a very small sample size. Rookie of the Year usually comes down to scoring and I think he’ll do a lot of that this year.
DePrisco: Paolo Banchero, F, Orlando Magic
This is a bit of a boring choice, choosing the No. 1 overall pick to win Rookie of the Year. But Banchero is in a great spot to put up numbers in Orlando and contribute to winning basketball. The Magic have a lot of young talent but have lacked the offensive firepower in recent years to win consistently. Banchero has everything you’d want in a rookie on the offensive end, and then some.
Byrum: Keegan Murray, F, Sacramento Kings
Everyone was critical of the Kings’ selection of Murray on draft night over Jaden Ivey, but for once it appears that Sacramento may have the last laugh. Not only is Murray projected to be a starter for the Kings, but he’ll be a notable contributor on a team with the talent to make the postseason. None of the other ROY front-runners can say that. He’s a do-it-all type of player that can rack up statistics as Franz Wagner did a year ago.
Most Improved Player
Todd: Anfernee Simons, G, Portland Trail Blazers
Notes: This award is basically impossible to predict, but Simons has given us enough in his first four years to think his star will keep rising. He improved his scoring output to 17.3ppg last year from just 7.8ppg the year before. As the starting two-guard alongside Damian Lillard (and with a hefty four-year, $100 million extension now in hand), look for Simons to explode this season.
Hughes: Anthony Edwards, G, Minnesota Timberwolves
This award usually goes to someone who was already good and becomes a star. I see that for Edwards, who made a significant leap last year. If he goes from averaging 21 points per game to somewhere in the high 20s, it will be his award to lose. He’s fully capable of doing that and he’s likely to be the biggest star on one of the better teams in the league, now that the T’Wolves have Rudy Gobert anchoring their defense. I think this is the year Edwards becomes not only an All-Star, but an All-NBA selection and household name.
DePrisco: Franz Wagner, F, Orlando Magic
Wagner is destined to become a fan-favorite among NBA League Pass diehards this year if he hasn’t already, but his game might earn him some hardware as well. He’s an incredibly long, versatile player on both ends of the floor and appears to have developed his offensive skills considerably over the offseason. Orlando’s Wagner-Banchero combo may be a serious problem for years to come.
Byrum: Tyrese Maxey, G, Philadelphia 76ers
Love the hype from Mike on the future of my dynasty fantasy team in Franz Wagner. Unfortunately, the Most Improved Award is typically given to an already-established player. Maxey had a breakout season in just his second season in the league, becoming the third-leading scorer on the 76ers with incredible shooting efficiency while making a playoff run. With James Harden’s age starting to be a factor, there will be more opportunities for Maxey to thrive.
Sixth Man of the Year
Todd: Malcolm Brogdon, G, Boston Celtics
Notes: The Celtics absolutely stole Brogdon from the Pacers considering what they sent in exhange. Now, the former ROY steps into an appetizing situation in Boston where he can immediately provide an impact behind Marcus Smart at point guard. Playing with the Celtics’ second unit should allow Brogdon the opportunity to handle the ball more and expand upon the 19.1ppg he put up last year in Indy.
Hughes: Spencer Dinwiddie, G, Dallas Mavericks
It was just last week that Mavs head coach Jason Kidd said Dinwiddie will lead Dallas’ second unit and that could be a great role for him. He fit in well with the Mavs last season, helping them reach the conference finals, and now will have an opportunity to be a primary scoring option when Doncic is off the floor. Dinwiddie was one of the best bench players in the league back in his Brooklyn days before becoming a starter. He’s also now entering his second season since returning from ACL surgery.
DePrisco: Jordan Poole, G, Golden State Warriors
Poole was a Most Improved Player contender last year and after helping the Warriors win another title, expect his game to grow even more as Golden State leans on him as a primary option off the bench.
Byrum: Russell Westbrook, PG, Los Angeles Lakers
Los Angeles cannot afford to have another season go off the rails like 2022. If Darvin Ham sticks to the plan of having Westbrook come off the bench (we’ll see how far that lasts), there’s no one that can compare to his production on a second unit.
Defensive Player of the Year
Todd: Jaren Jackson Jr., F, Memphis Grizzlies
Notes: Jackson came in fifth in DPOY voting last year, which was surprising considering he led the league with 2.3 blocks per game to go along with 0.9 steals. He bolsters the Grizzlies on that end of the floor and I think he has nowhere to go but up–all the way up to his first DPOY trophy as a 23-year-old.
Hughes: Bam Adebayo, PF/C, Miami Heat
Adebayo was fourth in voting for DPOY last year and will probably be even better this year, his Age 25 season. He’s incredibly gifted on both ends of the floor, but particularly as a defender because of his unique versatility to guard all types of players. Adebayo is a star with the potential to be a superstar, yet he’s underrated even though he plays in a big market. Maybe that will change if he takes home some hardware.
DePrisco: Giannis Antetokounmpo, F, Milwaukee Bucks
After Marcus Smart won this award last year, it felt like the game’s most versatile defenders finally started to get their due recognition. Enter Antetokounmpo, who might be the league’s most versatile defender and best rim protector. It’s time for this two-time MVP to become a two-time DPOY.
Byrum: Giannis Antetokoumpo, PF, Milwaukee Bucks
Like 2020, Antetokoumpo is going to sweep MVP and DPOY. Not only is Antetokoumpo one of the best all-around defenders in the league, but he also has the statistics to back it up.
Coach of the Year
Todd: Billy Donovan, Chicago Bulls
Notes: Remember how hot the Bulls were to start the 2021-22 season, but then cooled off? This time around, I think they keep that momentum going all year long and become the surprise powerhouse in the east. Donovan will be at the helm, and by naming Ayo Dosunmu as the team’s starting point guard, he’s already off to a good start.
Hughes: Steve Kerr, Warriors
Usually, coach of the year very simply goes to a guy who wins a ton of games. Because of that, I’ll take Kerr, who has the deepest Warriors team he’s ever coached and is probably going to win 60-plus this season. They may not challenge their record of 73 wins, but this team has so much upside with the young players on their roster, coupled with Stephen Curry and the usual cast of characters. Plus, he’s got a build-in narrative now of keeping the team together after Draymond Green turned their practice into Wrestlemania.
DePrisco: Joe Mazzulla, Boston Celtics
Despite Ime Udoka’s one-year suspension and the fact Boston will be without Robert Williams III for 2-3 months to start the year, the Celtics are still likely to win a lot of games this year. If they can secure a top-two or three seed in the East, you’d have to give Mazzulla a ton of credit for keeping his team together more or less on the fly as a first-time head coach.
Byrum: Mike Brown, Sacramento Kings
Sacramento has the chance to be good. Not Kings-level good, like actually decent in the grand scheme of the Western Conference. For a decade-and-a-half, this organization has tried and failed to plug in a coach, star player or new regime to be the difference. A new, well-respected coach would get a lot of attention if he can do the impossible and put this team in the playoffs. It certainly should be considered one of the best coaching performances if Brown pulls it off.
