Ignite’s winless start to season prompts question on pro vs. college route for top prospects

With the G League Ignite off to its worst start in franchise history since the team formed in 2020, starting this season 0-7, the annual questions are starting to arise about what is the best path for an NBA Draft prospect: pros or college. The Ignite has seen a multitude of success in three seasons with players being picked in the NBA Draft Lottery (Jalen Green, Jonathan Kuminga, Dyson Daniels and Scoot Henderson) and 10 total draft picks.

Yes, it’s still very early in the draft process and the positive thing going for all of the players who elected to go pro over playing in college is they’re young and possess endless potential.

“There’s a correlation between youth and upside, historically speaking,” one NBA scout told Yahoo Sports. “You expect inconsistencies at 19 or 20, but the combination of youth and production is the best-case scenario. Youth, in general, suggests upside.”

The decision to play for the Ignite or play in Australia’s National Basketball League are options that are not going anywhere for players coming up the ranks out of high school. NBA scouts travel all over the world to keep tabs on the players coming and that will never change. Only draft night will tell if these prospects made the right decision, playing in college or professionally, in order to further their career as an NBA player.

Here’s a look at a how a handful of players in the G League, NBL and college ranks stack up.

G League Ignite

This season, the Ignite arguably have the most young talent on the team since inception and this group of young players is struggling to win. Ron Holland and Matas Buzelis are projected toward the top of the lottery in the upcoming 2024 NBA Draft with Izan Almansa and Tyler Smith also potential first-round picks.

Holland was once a Texas pledge before he decommitted in April and eventually signed with the Ignite. He possesses the combination of length at 6-foot-8 and athleticism in the open court. NBA scouts will be watching closely this season to see if his 3-point shot shows more consistency (currently shooting 23.8% from deep), if he shows improvement in his decision-making when he has the ball in his hands (averaging 4.7 turnovers per game) and creating more separation getting his shot off. It’s still early and there isn’t much of a learning curve for these young players going straight from high school to playing against former NBA players and players doing everything they can to make an NBA roster.

Buzelis, a 6-9 versatile forward, has yet to log any minutes in the regular season after suffering a sprained ankle in practice. He’ll add some length defensively when he returns to the court and has incredible footwork, on and off the block, that should alleviate some of the pressure on Holland and Almansa to make plays in the lane. Buzelis joined the Ignite in June and chose the professional route over Florida State, Kentucky, North Carolina and Wake Forest.

The option to play in the G League has been a great move for Smith, who joined the Ignite after playing for Overtime Elite last season. Smith, a 6-10 forward, is shooting 50% from 3-point range and connected on 10-of-15 attempts in the first four games off the bench. The spacing and pace actually caters to Smith’s playing style and gives him more freedom to pop out on the wing.

Almansa, another Overtime Elite player, received early lottery buzz after showing more of a two-way threat offensively during a pair of exhibition games against the Perth Wildcats in September. The physicality and pace at the forward position in the G League took some adjustments from the 6-10 forward, but he strung together his two best games against the South Bay Lakers where he combined for 33 points, 19 rebounds, five assists and zero turnovers.

Australia’s NBL

There are five prospects who elected to play over in Australia for various teams in the NBL and NBA scouts and executives are traveling over 9,000 miles to see.

Alex Sarr, a 7-1 center originally from France, is in the running as the No. 1 overall pick in the upcoming draft. He has been quietly dominating at times players bigger and much older than him in the NBL for the Perth Wildcats. Sarr is averaging 9.5 points and 5.1 rebounds in only 20 minutes per game. He’s scored in double digits in eight of 15 games played and has been patient in the lane, taking what the defense gives him and letting the game come to him instead of forcing things at the rim.

A.J. Johnson is one of the youngest players in this draft class, turning 19 on Dec. 1, and has the biggest draft range early on, projected anywhere from the mid-first round to the end of the second round in early mock drafts. This is due to his small sample size on the court. Johnson, playing for the Illawarra Hawks, is averaging only 7.5 minutes per game and prior to the Hawks coach getting fired earlier in November, Johnson was playing the three, running from sideline to sideline in the offense and receiving minimal touches. For scouts who are able to watch Johnson in practice, it’s a completely different story. There are glimpses of why he was a five-star prospect coming out of high school and what he translates as a combo guard in the NBA. At 6-6, he has the length coveted at the guard position and showcases way more freedom in his decision-making in 5-on-5 and 3-on-3 play as the primary ball-handler.

The same could be said for Trentyn Flowers, who chose the Adelaide 36ers over playing for Louisville this season. Flowers has great size at 6-8 but has inconsistent minutes on the court throughout the season (although has a few impressive outings). He loves to attack the rim in both transition and the half-court set, and is definitely putting the work in to improve his 3-point jump shot.

Both Johnson and Flowers have struggled with the physicality of the NBL. At just 18 years old, it’s harder to judge their trajectory as an NBA player in the professional league than if they were both playing against peers at the college level.

Two players who are starting for their respective teams are Bobi Klintman and Alex Toohey. Klintman played his freshman season at Wake Forest before joining the Cairns Taipans. Toohey was originally committed to Gonzaga before he elected to stay home in Australia and play for the Sydney Kings. Klintman tested the NBA waters last season and decided to return for another year of competition to log more reps before making the jump to the NBA. Toohey, a 6-8 forward, has solid fundamentals as a four and the potential to pop out and make plays on the perimeter.

Early college standouts

At the start of every college season, there are always a handful of unexpected players who pop and become must-watch prospects for NBA scouts to track.

No other freshman in the country has been off to a hotter start than Kentucky’s Reed Sheppard. The 6-3 guard is commanding NBA scouts’ attention with his combination of consistent reads on offense, his defensive versatility (averaging three steals per game) and shooting lights-out from deep, connecting on 55.6% of his 3-point attempts. His teammate, Rob Dillingham, is also off to a hot start. Both players are currently coming off the bench for the Wildcats and Dillingham is one of the best facilitators in college basketball early on, averaging 5.7 assists per game.

Another freshman making an unexpected statement is Pittsburgh freshman guard Carlton “Bub” Carrington. Head coach Jeff Capel has given him freedom early on offensively and it’s paying off in a big way. Carrington started the season hot from 3-point range and has since cooled off but his shot looks much better from his senior year in high school. He’s also averaging six assists and only 1.9 turnovers per game, showing how reliable he can be as the primary ball-handler.

Kansas head coach Bill Self and his staff do a fantastic job at patiently developing big guards up to their senior year, and this season is no exception with 6-7 guard Kevin McCullar Jr. emerging as the leader this Jayhawks team. With each game, his confidence grows and he looks like one of the most complete players in college basketball, averaging 18.1 points, 7.3 rebounds and 5.7 assists per game.

No. 3 Marquette is off to a hot start and a lot of its success is coming from the guard-forward play of seniors Oso Ighodaro and Tyler Kolek. Ighodaro was one of the best players on the court during the Maui Invitational where he battled in the post and looked great against Adem Bona (UCLA), Hunter Dickinson (Kansas) and Zach Edey (Purdue). Kolek, although he isn’t the biggest guard on the court, he makes up for it with his elite passing and the way he moves so well off the ball.

What an incredible college journey Tennessee guard Dalton Knecht has had. He started out at Northeastern Junior College, before transferring to Northern Colorado for two seasons and finally electing to play at Tennessee for his senior season. Knecht is a 6-6 guard who makes tough shots look easy and is one of the main reasons why the Volunteers are the No. 10 team in the country. He’s currently averaging 17.5 points and shooting 42% from 3 on five attempts per game.