The NBA play-in tournament continues Wednesday night with a pair of elimination games between the Nos. 9 and 10 seeds of each conference. The Chicago Bulls and Oklahoma City Thunder have chances to become the league’s first No. 10 seeds to advance in the format’s short history. Both teams will also have to do it by cracking tough defensive opponents in Toronto and New Orleans. This is the time of year when coaching comes to the forefront, and matchups become just as important as opponents.
I will have my picks posted for each of Wednesday night’s games in a separate video, but another way we can exploit these matchups is through the player prop market. Here are my favorite props for each game:
DeMar DeRozan under 27.5 points and assists
There is no denying that this game is personal for DeRozen, who spent nine years in Toronto before being traded and watching his former team win the NBA title in 2019. Now with the Bulls, DeRozen would love to exact revenge. However, emotions don’t cash bets, and that has me lining up to fade the former Raptor. Toronto coach Nick Nurse has been very successful in limiting DeRozan in the three meetings between the two teams this season. The Raptors’ defense has stifled DeRozan, particularly in the last two meetings, holding him to 13 and 9 points. Nurse doesn’t just limit his scoring, he takes him out of the offense completely and forces Chicago to look elsewhere. DeRozen’s average of 5.2 dimes per game drops to 3.3 against Toronto. Rather than just targeting his scoring, there is more value in rolling in his assists as well. DeRozan fell well short of this prop in all three meetings, combining for 22, 16, and 15 total points and assists against Toronto.
C.J. McCollum over 22.5 points
While everyone’s eyes are on Brandon Ingram and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, my money is on C.J. McCollum playing a pivotal role for the Pelicans. In a game where I expect a lot of runs and lead changes for both teams, McCollum has the capability to shift momentum with clutch shots. I expect him to take matters into his own hands early, much like he set the tone in last year’s 9 vs. 10 game for New Orleans. McCollum scored 27 first-half points in a 113-103 win over the Spurs in this exact same spot. He should be able to get plenty of open looks against the Thunder’s perimeter defense with Ingram drawing the majority of the attention. Don’t let the way he finished the regular season discourage you from backing the Pels guard. Even in a poor shooting night, CJ still managed to score 23 points despite going 0-of-5 from beyond the arc. I’m betting we see some positive shooting regression on his home floor, so I am happy to back the steady veteran to deliver in the biggest game of the year.