Nobody is talking about the Boston Celtics. In a weekend where Giannis Antetokounmpo and Ja Morant suffered injuries, and the Suns went down despite Kevin Durant remaining healthy, the team with the second-best record in the regular season quietly handled its business. Boston asserted its dominance by battering Atlanta in the first game of their first-round Eastern Conference series. The scoreboard read 112-99, but anyone who watched the game Saturday knew the Hawks never got close. The mismatch was evident early as the Celtics surged to a 10-point lead in the first quarter and followed it up by scoring 45 points in the second. Defensively, Boston shut down the Hawks from the perimeter, forcing Atlanta to start the game 0-fof-10 from beyond the arc. Atlanta’s limited offensive arsenal never stood a chance against one the league’s best defenses.
Boston enters Tuesday night as a 10.5-point favorite in Game 2 after slamming the back door shut on Atlanta bettors and covering as a slightly smaller 9.5-point favorite Saturday. While I do believe the first game was a strong signal in terms of the stylistic mismatches in this series, I am admittedly not thrilled about laying a truckload of chalk in consecutive games. We often use the phrase “dog or pass” when we identify a vulnerable favorite. This is the exact opposite. It’s favorite or pass, as I could never back Atlanta on the road even with a double-digit spread.
However, we have options. Rather than force myself into a bet that would have me sweating before tip-off, I decided to get creative. Here are the three ways I attacked Tuesday night’s game over at BetMGM.
Boston first half -6.5
Old reliable. Whenever you don’t want to lay a big number, it can be a good idea to isolate the first half and eliminate the concerns of a backdoor cover. The most evident take away from watching these two teams go head-to-head is Atlanta’s inability to stop the Celtics. That will be a prevailing theme throughout the series. In Game 1, Boston scored 74 first-half points and built a 30-point halftime lead with an offensive rating of 137. When these two teams played last month on the Hawks’ home floor, it was the same story. The Celtics had a 71-61 halftime lead. Boston’s defense will be at its best early, so let’s cut the spread down to 6.5 and cash this bet by halftime.
Halftime/Final Celtics/Celtics -200
Here is one for those who like to pay for reduced risk. This bet is a little juicy at -200, but it’s expensive because of the high probability it hits. The implied odds at 66.7% are still short by my eyes. As stated above, Boston’s advantages on the court are likely to be more pronounced in the first half while the game is still competitive. Without Atlanta’s defense having any answers, the Hawks have to shoot the lights out early to stay close. I don’t see that happening, nor do I think this as a winnable game for the Hawks, who only won 38% of games this season as a road underdog. Boston was 33-9 at home this season. I’m comfortable laying -200 for them to lead at halftime before taking a 2-0 series lead.
Top point scorer — Jayson Tatum -115
Jaylen Brown led all scorers Saturday with 29 points, but three other players had 24 or more (Tatum, Dejounte Murray, and Derrick White). The balance of scoring is giving us the opportunity to bet the best player on the floor to be the game’s highest scorer. I’m comfortable Tatum can do whatever he wants against an Atlanta team that’s hopelessly undermanned on the defensive side of the court. Out of Tatum’s 25 points in the opener, 21 came in the first half before Boston took its foot off the gas after having a 30-point lead at halftime. The last time he faced the Hawks in the regular season, Tatum had a monster game with 34 points and 15 rebounds. At -115 odds, I will take a shot that he ends up the highest scorer in this one.
