Key events
*Gauff 6-6 Sabalenka If Gauff closes out here, Sabalenka will be in big trouble, given their respective demeanours, and very quickly it’s 30-0, Gauff skidding in to show how it’s done at the net. But a return on to the line stays low, Gauff misreading the bounce, and then, caught in mid-court, she nets tamely; both players are struggling with the pressure and if anyone can read an opponent doubting themselves it’s Sabalenka, who immediately ups the power, mashing a return which sets up a break-back point. And a succession of big forehand incite Gauff to go long; we’ve got ourselves a breaker!
Gauff 6-5 Sabalenka* Sabalenka keeps thrashing away, making 15-0, but two leaping thrashes from Gauff level the game; she’s fantastic athlete as well as a fantastic player, and we’re soon at 30-all. More colossal points upcoming; can Sabalenka, who so far has lost the biggest ones, hold it down? She cannot, making 40-30 before getting her feet all wrong to send a backhand long. “She’s just wild is Sabalenka,” says Coach Calv. “There’s no control at all. Or variation.” And shonuff, a fine point makes her advantage, then a swipe falls long; she’s not being as patient as earlier in the set, forcing things as they get realer, and when Gauff sends her wide and deep, her forehand riposte on the run has too much on it. Break point Gauff … and HAVE A LOOK! Sabalenka rockets a forehand to the corner, comes in to finish the rally with the whole court at which to aim, and for some reason unloads the suitcase, choosing to hit at Gauff’s side when she could blow the ball over the net to the other, and it’d be a winner. But she wallops wide, and Gauff will now serve for the set!
*Gauff 5-5 Sabalenka Gauff will be relieved to still be in this set. On the one hand, she’ll know Sabalenka has been the better player, but on the other will also know that without the doubles, she might be in front. She’ll also be confident in her ability to play the biggest points better – Sabalenka got tight at the end of the last game – but as soon as the pressure is slightly reduced, she finds a winner for 0-15. She misses with her next go, though, then at 30-15 another double, Gauff’s sixth – and her second delivery is a proper dribbler – mean this next point is crucial. And when the American goes long, just, she’s set point down; will her serve hold up? Yes it will, a boomer landing to force the netted return. On advantage, though, a weak second serve allows Sabalenka to make a cuppa and light a smoke before punishing a winner down and on to the line. This is turning into an epic, the champ in charge of the next rally only to come in and stick another volley into the net; a missed drop from Gauff then returns us to deuce, and this is exactly like camping: intense. But down advantage, Sabalenka swipes long, and that’s parity restored. I’ve not a clue what’s going to happen next.
Gauff 4-5 Sabalenka* Another Sabalenka net cord brings both players to the net, Gauff doing a brilliant job of reading her opponent’s intentions – not for the first time – to make 0-15. But she then nets, a typical serve out wide and clean-up backhand follow – off the back foot to a quality return! – but then, having opened the space to crunch a backhand down the line, Sabalenka goes long and we’re at 30-all. These next points are so crucial … and Sabalenka goes for it on second serve, missing the outside line of the box! A further fault follows, a decent enough return prompts a netted forehand, and for the second time, Gauff breaks back!
*Gauff 3-5 Sabalenka John, our pictures man, is right behind Gauff’s trainers sneakers, and I’n inclined to agree. They fire her to 30-0, then a devastating forehand cross leaves her standing and she misses her first serve; P-R-E-S-S-U-R-E. So the last thing she needs next is a net cord, though in fairness, Sabalenka’s backhand might’ve been a winner anyway. It matters not, though, because form 30-all Gauff quickly closes out, forcing Sabalenka to serve for the set.
Gauff 2-5 Sabalenka* But Gauff makes 0-15 with a terrific backhand cross – she can be so devastating off that wing – but at the moment, the consistency isn’t there, perhaps because of the pressure that Sabalenka brings, spooking opponents in to trying to finish rallies before she does. She consolidates easily, an ace to finish the exclamation point, and she’s the more patient, consistent player at the moment/
*Gauff 2-4 Sabalenka Sabalenka makes 0-15 when Gauff misses a forehand – to her consternation – but a long backhand followed by a long forehand makes 30-15. A fourth double, though, gives Sabalenka a sniff, so down comes a colossal serve out wide … then another double, and that’s deuce. So here comes Sabalenka, who knows that a two-double game must not go unpunished and that her opponent is likely to lower the pace on first serve to make sure she gets it on. And shonuff, two big forehands power her through deuce for her break back – not her break-back – and that, I think is the difference: Sabalenka’s power on serve and return are bigger and more reliable.
Gauff 2-3 Sabalenka* What do we make of Gauff’s sneakers? Good or too busy? I’m torn, as I like them but my Air Max nature has little time for New Balance now that you ask (unless, of course, worn by Bryan Robson). Anyroad, Sabalenka holds to love, finishing the game with anotherace.
*Gauff 2-2 Sabalenka Gauff bangs down an ace for 30-15 then, when her drop catches the net, hoists a fine lob when Sabalenka runs in that totally disorients her opponent, searching high and low for a ball which drops in at her feet. Another ace follows, and this is already a banging contest.
Gauff 1-2 Sabalenka* Sabalenka nets, then out first flash of Gauff, a backhand winner down the line, and a netted overhead raises three break-back points. Sabalenka saves the first, but in charge of the next rally, Gauff reads her attempted clean-up, forces her to play an extra shot, then another, the second right at the ankles, and the American races in to pat a putaway over the net, just avoiding the touch. We’re away!
*Gauff 0-2 Sabalenka Gauff, though, begins with a double … and another. She’ll not worry too much about that but she goes for the middle of the box next go to make sure, which invites Sabalenka into the rally. And before long, she opens shoulders to punish an inside-out forehand monster on to the sideline, raising three break points. And a terrific return looks to have done the job, but a great get from Gauff elicits the netted volley – I don’t think she expected that ball to come back. No matter: another fine return is too hit, Gauff nets, and that’s the break! The US champ has seen this before, but I’ve sensed a different Sabalenka these last two weeks. We shall see.
Gauff 0-1 Sabalenka* (*denotes server) Sabalenka opens with an ace, then slots a forehand winner into the space having send a serve out wide. Seconds later, the game is hers, and that’s an ominous start from the champ.
Righto, off we go! Sabalenka to serve…
I don’t like to go against Coach Calv, but I fancy Sabalenka for this one. She’s playing with such confidence at the moment – yes, I know it’s fragile, and she’s not been tested yet – but her best match beats Gauff’s and I think we’ll see something close to it.
Some absolute beauties here:
Here come our players!
Regular readers of this blog will be waiting for Coach Calv’s Betton’s breakdown of our first semi and rightly so. Well, here it is: “Will come down to how well Gauff’s forehand holds up and how well she serves. The FH is still ugly as and has no power in it, but she’s been better at making it not crap since the summer. She’s a much better player than Sabalenka all round. If she has a high first serve % it will limit how much Sabalenka can attack her. Sabalenka could just hit though her, but Coco has a great serve and moves great so that seems unlikely.”
Also going on:
Eurosport have just shown us a lovely, heartwarming interview with Daria Kasatkina and her girlfriend, the figure skater Natalia Zabiiako. We’ve come a long, long way since the days of Martina, but given since coming out, Kasatkina hasn’t been home to Russia, we can be certain we’ve still a long way to go.
Sabalenka is arriving at the locker room, and I wonder how he’s feeling. There’ll have been enormous relief at winning here last year, but there remains a fragility about her – perhaps necessarily so, given how hard she hits it, the margins for error so slim. But Rybakina ought really to have beaten her in last year’s final, which to say she’s never brought her best gear to the biggest occasion and she’ll know that. Gauff will too.
Over the last few days, Yastremska has used her platform to speak openly and movingly about what it means to be Ukrainian right now. She’s a very impressive young woman, and I don’t think tonight will get big on her.
That’s good and ultimately unexpected news. Kyrgios has been a lot of fun in commentary, and one thing that shines through is his love for the game, so it makes perfect sense that he’s decided he’s still got things to do.
The conditions might affect our first match, too. If it’s cloudy but not raining, the roof will be open and conditions slower, which might make things harder for Sabalenka by slowing her down … or might mean her extra power is even more significant because it’s harder to Gauff to generate any in response.
It’s a grey day in Melbourne, but it’s also a multicoloured day because it’s Pride Day. What a great innovation that is.
Preamble
In the 1988 FA Cup semi-finals, Nottingham Forest were drawn to play Liverpool, while Luton Town took on Wimbledon. Which, on the face of things, has nothing whatsoever to do with our 2024 Australian Open semi-finals.
But here comes the segue! Luton and Watford were poor relations from whom no one expected anything, while Forest and Liverpool were fantastic sides, two of the best three in the country at the time; their match was widely touted as the final before the final, with good reason.
Except it was Wimbledon who won the Cup, teaching us, once again, that life, and sport in particular, don’t do what we expect them to. So we shouldn’t simply expect that whichever of Aryna Sbalenka and Coco Gauff wins this morning will simply stroll to the title. and if retro football isn’t your thing, just ask poor Ons Jabeur, who beat Sabalenka in the Wimbldeon semis, only to lose her long-awaited coronation of a final to the unseeded Markéta Vondrousová – who’d beaten the unseeded Elina Svitolina to get there.
Coco Gauff v Aryna Sabalenka, though, what a match! Gauff has improved massively over the last year, far better at hiding her forehand than before, but perhaps the biggest change has been a mental one. She now contests these matches expecting to prevail, having come from behind to beat Sabalenka in the US Open final.
Sabalenka, though, is the defending champion, her terrifying power and developing hands a brutal night for anyone. Her cruelty in dismantling Barbora Krejcikova was almost hard to watch but was, of course, fantastic to watch, and she could scarcely arrive at this match in better form.
However there’s always a however so, however: Sabalenka is brilliant at demolishing the lesser lights to reach the last four of Slams – eight in a row now – but has only one final to show for that. It’s not so easy to bully the bigger girls and it won’t be so easy for her to bully Gauff – though we can be certain she’ll try.
Our second match, as the late John Motson once said, appears “to be between the also-rans.” Dayana Yastremska is a qualifier who, in 2021, failed a drug test before later being cleared. It’s impossible to imagine the pain and frustration that must’ve entailed – in 2021, then a promising youngster, she travelled to Melbourne and quarantined for two weeks in a hotel room before discovering her provisional ban would not be lifted. So for her, this is relief and redemption after a long struggle, meaning anyone who plays her is also playing that. She is not to be taken lightly, at all.
And we can be certain Qinwen Zheng knows that. She stands at the edge of immortality, hoping to become the first Chinese to win a major since Li Na, who won Australia in 2014. But with great opportunity comes great pressure, and though she’s handled it well so far – it’s been clear for a couple of rounds that these are the moments of her life – whatever happens here, being her will never be the same again. This is going to be great!