It has been 10 years since Centre Court played host to one of the greatest British sporting moments when Andy Murray overcame Novak Djokovic to win his first Wimbledon title at last. The weight and importance of that moment, a Briton conquering Wimbledon at the height of the modern game, was instantly clear.
In hindsight, though, that final has also turned out to be a historic event for a completely different reason. While Djokovic had established himself as the clear No 1, he was still early into his dominance. He had won six grand slam titles by 2013 and, as Murray clinched match point, the pair had each won Wimbledon once. At that time, it was not unusual for people to describe Murray as the more accomplished grass court player and grass as Djokovic’s least effective surface. But that loss to Murray is the last time he was defeated on Centre Court.
Since then, Djokovic has pieced together one of the most dominant runs that Wimbledon has ever seen. This year he will begin the Championships as the heavy favourite to extend that run and win a historic eighth Wimbledon title, which would place him equal with Roger Federer as the joint men’s record holder in SW19. In the Open era, only Björn Borg and Federer have won five Wimbledon titles in a row.
Djokovic has always said Wimbledon was his primary goal as a child with big hopes and dreams, but even at a time when the grass plays slower and is more rewarding to baseline players, the surface was still far from a natural fit. It is a reflection of Djokovic’s improvement over the years that he has been able to adapt his game to the surface, drastically improving his serve, becoming so comfortable at the net and arming himself with a competent backhand slice.
On the eve of the Championships, the defining question of the men’s draw is exactly who can realistically challenge the defending champion. While Djokovic may be most effective on hard courts, these days he is perhaps an even bigger favourite on the grass courts of Wimbledon than nearly anywhere else.
Last year, the answer was absolutely nobody. This time, the opposition seems to be even further from him. While Rafael Nadal is recovering from hip surgery, Matteo Berrettini and Nick Kyrgios, the last two Wimbledon finalists, are struggling badly with injuries and have not won a match on grass between them this year. Top contenders on other surfaces, such as Stefanos Tsitsipas and Daniil Medvedev, have made no clear improvements on grass.
One different name in the mix is Carlos Alcaraz, the top seed, who landed in London just trying to gain experience on a surface he has spent so little time on. He finished Queen’s as its champion. Still, winning six matches to reach the final, the earliest he can face the defending champion, is an extremely difficult challenge. It remains to be seen if tricky players like Sebastian Korda, Frances Tiafoe and Jannik Sinner can stand up to the top two.
In contrast to the top two, there are strong cases to be made for four outstanding grand-slam champions who account for every big title between them this year. For the past few months, it seemed that Elena Rybakina would be the favourite at Wimbledon in her first grand-slam title defence. Instead, her summer has been tough.
After being forced to withdraw from the French Open due to a virus, the residual symptoms have affected her since. She has been training at Wimbledon since she withdrew from Eastbourne last Monday, but she will have to find her feet in the opening rounds while residing in the toughest part of the draw. Still, Rybakina has shown her mental fortitude throughout this season. She will likely be extremely difficult to beat.
Aryna Sabalenka returns with form and comfort on the surface. The Australian Open champion remains No 1 in the WTA race as she enjoys an extraordinary season. A two-time semi-finalist at Wimbledon, her first-strike tennis perfectly suits grass. Meanwhile, Iga Swiatek is still learning to love the surface but a confidence boosting run to the last four at Bad Homburg – she withdrew due to a minor illness – will have helped. She has a great draw with an opportunity to gain more momentum.
Alongside the three defining players of this season, Petra Kvitova remains a favourite at Wimbledon, where the 33-year-old is a two-time champion. The Czech returned to the top 10 this year with a surprise title at the Miami Open and she kicked off her beloved grass season by playing brilliantly en route to winning her 31st WTA title in Berlin.
However, the tournament that has defined her career is also the place she has recently struggled to perform in. She hasn’t reached a quarter-final at Wimbledon since her second title in 2014. She will have to overcome those mental hurdles and a brutal quarter of the draw inhabited by other contenders such as Ons Jabeur, Jelena Ostapenko and Rybakina in order to succeed.
There will be ample off-court topics to discuss this year; a year after Russian and Belarusian players were banned from competing at Wimbledon, their return will undoubtedly spark headlines throughout the opening week. The All England Club, meanwhile, will be on alert for Just Stop Oil protests. Cameras continue to follow players around as another Netflix season beckons. Most importantly, the tennis will begin shortly.