In the promotional campaign released by the ATP this month to welcome in the new season, the governing body of men’s tennis underlined that it is determined to look towards its future. As numerous talented young players featured in the campaign, the poet James Massiah narrated the dawn of a new era in a sport that has moved on.
And yet, the tour’s ranking belies its narrative. There may be newer, fresher challengers, but the figure at the head of the sport and the man to beat remains the same as it has for well over a decade.
After one of the most dominant seasons of his career, which yielded titles at the Australian Open, French Open, US Open and ATP Finals, and saw him finally clinch the Open era grand slam record, Novak Djokovic now sits at the No 1 ranking by over 2,000 points. He returns to his favourite grand slam chasing his 25th major title as the heavy favourite once more.
Despite his dominance, there are still plenty of potential pitfalls. The first week of the season was a reminder that at, 36 years old, his body is increasingly likely to be an obstacle. At the United Cup last week, Djokovic struggled with a wrist complaint and he was defeated by Alex de Minaur. Injuries have never stopped Djokovic from winning in Australia.
Meanwhile, Djokovic’s closest competitors are in far better position than a year ago. The players ranked between two and four are each responsible for Djokovic’s four losses away from clay last season; although Carlos Alcaraz ended last season fatigued, his preternatural development continued as he clinched a second grand slam title under the most spectacular circumstances against Djokovic at Wimbledon. Alcaraz will have to quickly find his feet in Australia after opting against a warm-up tournament, but his rapid growth will surely continue.
After a sophomore slump in 2022 following his rise to No 1, last year Daniil Medvedev returned to his best, performing at a consistently high level on hard courts positioning himself for further grand slam success. Jannik Sinner, meanwhile, ended last season by living up to the intense hype as he spectacularly defeated Djokovic from triple match point down in the Davis Cup before carrying Italy to the title. Other players, particularly Holger Rune and Alexander Zverev, may be able to play spoiler, but it is Alcaraz, Medvedev and Sinner who should stare down Djokovic with the belief that they can.
While the protagonist of the men’s game has remained unchanged for so long, the WTA has a different complexion at the beginning of the season. The disorder and inconsistency that characterised large parts of the late 2010s and early 2020s is long gone.
The emergence of Iga Swiatek has transformed the game. The Pole set the tone with her singular 2022 season and, impressively, last year a number of players responded to the challenge she set by stepping up. The transformation of Aryna Sabalenka was a dramatic development, and the Belarusian went toe to toe with Swiatek for the No 1 ranking until the last week of the year at the WTA Finals. Behind them, Elena Rybakina backed up her 2022 Wimbledon title while Coco Gauff lived up to the suffocating hype and pressure by winning the US Open as she tore through the second half of the season.
If the first week of the new season is anything to go by, none of the top four have lost any momentum. Rybakina and Sabalenka faced off in the Brisbane final, with the Kazakhstani delivering a statement 6-0, 6-3 win, while Gauff won in Auckland.
In the United Cup, meanwhile, Swiatek showed her brilliance by going unbeaten in her five singles matches. It was wildly entertaining to see her even making her male opponents’ lives difficult, battering their second serves and going toe to toe with them from the baseline in the mixed doubles matches.
As in the men’s draw, Swiatek begins as the favourite, even though she has been handed a tough draw. The No 1 seed begins against the 2020 champion Sofia Kenin, with the winner facing either the 2016 champion Angelique Kerber or 2022 finalist Danielle Collins. She may well have to face Jelena Ostapenko or Rybakina, two players with great records against her, en route.
Beyond the order at the top of the game, though, the definitive theme of the women’s draw is the comebacks: Naomi Osaka and Kerber return from maternity leave, Emma Raducanu from injury and Elina Svitolina and Caroline Wozniacki continue their stories from last year. Among them all, Osaka returning towards the top of the sport would be priceless.
This year, there is a change for the competitors as the tournament moves to a Sunday start. While the organisers have claimed that the move is an attempt to minimise late finishes, an additional weekend day of play is an additional day of revenue for the tournament. Despite that, the Australian Open continues to offer notably less prize money than the other grand slam tournaments.
