He can’t do it again can he? Er yeah, he can. In 2017, Rafael Nadal won the US Open without beating a single top-20, opponent, the only time that’s ever happened. And though this won’t be that, there’d still be something of the sneak about it: in the weaker half of the draw, with no Novak Djokovic (and no, Novak Djokovic) and Alexander Zverev eliminated early.
But to win the final, he’ll have to go some. Daniil Medvedev is a serious business and, having won Flushing Meadow, holds himself like a champion and knows he can do it when he really needs to.
We still can’t be certain about him – he’ll probably turn up – in the way we can be certain about Nadal – he’ll definitely turn up. But this has the makings of a terrific contest, because the match-up is tight. Historically, Nadal struggles – relatively speaking! – against tall players with good backhands – think Murray, Djokovic, Wawrinka and early Del Potro – because their height neutralises his biggest weapon, the high forehand into the aforementioned good backhand – and Medvedev is absolutely in their category.
One way of looking at things. Another, though, would note that Medvedev tends to win matches by serving big, keeping a good length and not missing from the back – he doesn’t hit many winners off the ground, so if he doesn’t make his first serves he can struggle to close out big matches because he’s relying on his opponent missing. Nadal, on the other hand, is similar in that he doesn’t miss many from the baseline, but different in that he also hits plenty of winners.
That’s one reason this blog leans towards a 21st major rather than a second. But the main motivator is that number and what it means: Nadal knows he won’t get many more goes at being tennis’ most, er, winningest man of all time, which is to say he’ll be absolutely feral out there, in the best possible way. Get settled, because this is going to be great.
Play: 7.30pm local, 8.30am GMT
