Philadelphia’s Joel Embiid seeks his first NBA MVP award.
Milwaukee’s Giannis Antetokounmpo could win his third MVP award in four seasons.
And Denver’s Nikola Jokic has had the kind of season that could make him the 12th player to win consecutive MVPs.
While those three stars are the favorites, the 2021-22 season has provided a deep and compelling MVP race that also includes Memphis’ Ja Morant, Chicago’s DeMar DeRozan, Dallas’ Luke Doncic, Golden State’s Steph Curry, Boston’s Jayson Tatum, Phoenix’s Devin Booker and Brooklyn’s Kevin Durant.
When the voting is completed – voters rank their top five in order – a few more players may end up with votes.
But with less than three weeks left in the regular season, it’s a three-man race between Antetokounmpo, Embiid and Jokic. All three make great cases, and despite what the NBA illuminati on Twitter may demand, there is not a wrong choice or incorrect order. If a voter has watched a full season of basketball and determined that Player A deserves the MVP over Player B and C, so be it. You’re not going to get 100 people to agree unanimously often.
All three have posted meaningful regular and advanced statistics and have been asked to carry more responsibility with key players not available.
The closest three-player races involved Karl Malone, Alonzo Mourning and Tim Duncan in 1998-99, with the trio separated by 87 points and Malone winning, and Magic Johnson, Charles Barkley and Michael Jordan bunched within 72 points and Johnson winning in 1989-90.
Could this season be just as close?
Let’s take a closer look at the MVP race:
The Big 3
Giannis Antetokounmpo, Bucks
Antetokounmpo averages a career-high 29.8 points and is involved in a down-to-the-wire clash with Embiid and James for the scoring title, which Antetokounmpo has never won. He also averages 11.5 rebounds, 5.8 assists, 1.4 blocks and 1.1 steals and shoots 54.7% from the field. In addition, he has career-highs in free throws made (8.3) and attempted (11.6).
The Bucks should finish in the top four in the Eastern Conference with a chance at the first or second seed, and they played without Brook Lopez for most of the season. Antetokounmpo was asked to cover more of the paint with Lopez out. His impact is felt in on-off court stats, too. With Antetokounmpo in the game, the Bucks score 115.7 points and allow 107.7 points per 100 possessions. When Antetokounmpo is on the bench, those stats suffer at 107.4 and 110.
Antetokounmpo also has a player efficiency rating – a measurement of a player’s positive and negative contributions – of 32.29, which is a career-high and the second-best PER in NBA history, according to basketball-reference.com.
Antetokounmpo won the award in 2019 and 2020, and while voter fatigue has been cited as a reason why a player doesn’t win two or three consecutive awards. If Antetokounmpo doesn’t win his third in four seasons, it won’t be voter fatigue in this case.
Joel Embiid, Sixers
Embiid is having a career year, starting with career highs in points (29.8) and assists (4.3) per game while also averaging 11.3 rebounds, 1.4 blocks and 1.1 steals and shooting 48.7 from the field and a respectable 35.9% on 3-pointers.
He is the reason why the Sixers will get a top-four seed in the East. Also, Embiid and the Sixers endured through the Ben Simmons situation, winning games with the three-time All-Star unavailable.
Just like the Bucks with Antetokounmpo, the Sixers flourish with Embiid on the court, scoring 114.2 points and allowing 107.1 points per 100 possessions. When Embiid is not in the game, the Sixers score 106.6 points and allow 110 points per 100 possessions.
Embiid’s PER is third in the league this season, behind Antetokounmpo and Jokic, at 31.37.
Nikola Jokic, Nuggets
When the season started, I said Jokic was competing against himself for the award and would need a better season than last to repeat. Guess what? It can be argued he has had a better season, lifting the Nuggets to a possible top six seed without Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr.
Jokic is near a triple-double at 26.2 points, 13.6 rebounds and eight assists per game while averaging 1.4 steals and shooting 57% from the field, including 34.6% on 3s. He’s shooting six percentage points better from the foul line this season compared to 2020-21 and is less than a percentage point from a career-high in field goal percentage.
He also leads the league in double-doubles (58) and triple-doubles (18).
Jokic has improved his MVP case as the season progressed, posting two games with at least 45 points, 10 rebounds and 10 assists, joining just six other players in NBA history to post that stat line.
Now, about PER. The stat created by former ESPNer and Memphis Grizzlies front-office executive John Hollinger is not an end all, be all measurement. It is a tool to help determine who is highly productive on the court, and Jokic is posting the best PER ever in a season at 32.46 since applying the formula starting with the 2002-03 season.
In the past 20 seasons, there have never been three players with a PER higher than 30 in a season – until this season, illustrating just how superb Jokic, Antetokounmpo and Embiid have been.
Next up
DeMar DeRozan, Bulls
DeRozan is delivering, a reminder of just how good he is, especially on a talented team. He averages 27.6 points, a career-high after posting 27.3 per game in 2016-17. Despite limited 3-point attempts (not even two per game), DeRozan is an efficient scorer at 50% from the field and 87% from the free-throw line. It’s even more impressive to see DeRozan do this in his 13th season at 32 years old and four seasons removed from his last All-NBA selection.
Ja Morant, Grizzlies
Morant is just 22 years old, and if he continues to play like he has this season, he will be part of this conversation for the next several seasons. Morant averages 27.6 points, 6.7 assists, 5.7 rebounds, 1.2 steals and shoots 49.3% from the field, 34% on 3s and 76.2% from the line. He should become a better long-range and free throw shooter, making him an even better scorer. Morant has led the Grizzlies to the second-best record in the league and second place in the Western Conference.
Luka Doncic, Mavericks
Doncic’s MVP candidacy has been a slow build with the Mavs star increasing his level of play the past two months, averaging 31.3 points, 9.5 rebounds and 8.4 assists and shooting 47.4% from the field and 40% on 3s.
The others
LeBron James, Lakers
James is not going to win based on the Los Angeles Lakers’ record. But he’s still having a fantastic season (30 points, 8.2 rebounds, 6.3 assists, 1.3 steals and 1.1 blocks and 52.3% from the field) and could become the oldest player at 37 years old to win the scoring title. And it would be close. Michael Jordan is the oldest, having done it at 30 years old. James is a fraction of a point ahead of Antetokounmpo and Embiid with nearly three weeks left.
Jayson Tatum, Celtics
Former Washington Wizards coach Scott Brooks once said Tatum will win the MVP someday. It won’t be this season, but like Morant, Tatum will be in the discussion for the next five-plus seasons. Tatum’s play has elevated the Celtics into a position where they can finish with a top-four seed in the East – a scenario that seemed implausible when they were 18-21 in early January. Tatum averages 27 points, 8.1 rebounds and 4.3 assists and is one of four players to have two 50-point games this season.
Devin Booker, Suns
Devin Booker made sure the Suns didn’t falter in the standings while Chris Paul has been sidelined with an injury, and he was outstanding before Paul’s injury. Booker averages 26 points, 5.1 rebounds, 4.9 assists, 1.2 steals and shoots 45.9% from the field (37.5% on 3s) for the best team in the league. The Suns are an offensive machine with Booker on the court, scoring 117.1 points per 100 possessions.
Steph Curry, Warriors
Curry started hot, ran into a slump and then started to pick it up again right before his foot injury in last Wednesday’s loss to the Celtics that has him sidelined. Curry averages 25.5 points, 6.3 assists and 5.2 rebounds and shoots 43.7% from the field and 38% on 4.5 made 3s per game.
Karl Anthony-Towns, Timberwolves
In case you’ve missed out on watching Karl-Anthony Towns this season, he’s put together a fabulous season, close to the coveted 50-40-90 line: 52.7% from the field, 40.7% on 3s and 82.8% from the foul line. Towns, who is dominating since the All-Star break, averages 24.7 points, 9.9 rebounds, 3.7 assists, 1.2 blocks and one steal. The Timberwolves still have a chance to secure the sixth seed in the West.
Donovan Mitchell, Jazz
The Jazz are in fourth place, trying to hold off Dallas and trying to catch Golden State. Donovan Mitchell’s play can help the Jazz do the latter. He averages 26.2 points, 5.4 assists, 4.2 rebounds and 1.5 steals and shoots 45.3% from the field, 36% on 3 and 85.4% from the line.
Hurt by games played
Kevin Durant, Nets
Kevin Durant is one of the best players in the league this season: two 50-point games, 20 games with at least 30 points and averages 29.7 points, 7.3 rebounds and 6.1 assists while shooting 52.3% from the field, 37.5% on 3s and 90.3% from the line. But he’s played in just 45 games. If he had played 15 more games, he’d be in the main conversation with Antetokounmpo, Embiid and Jokic.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Taking a deep dive into NBA’s MVP race. Who deserves to win the award?
