The Philadelphia 76ers have officially put the NBA on notice. Sunday’s 125-109 win over the New York Knicks further validated the impact of the Sixers’ newly acquired playmaker. In the first two games of the James Harden era, Philadelphia has averaged 129 points per game with a 124.6 offensive rating.
By pairing Harden with Joel Embiid, there was immediate potential for Philly to own the league’s most lethal two-man game. Surprisingly, Harden’s impact has stretched far past the league’s odds-on favorite to win this year’s MVP. Tyrese Maxey has been the biggest beneficiary of the Sixers’ more explosive offense, dropping 21 and 28 points in two games.
The Sixers’ futures odds immediately surged to third-best in the Eastern Conference with the Simmons-for-Harden swap. After hurdling the top-seeded Miami Heat on the odds board, it was fair to question whether Philly was overpriced in the market. This weekend put those concerns emphatically to rest. The 76ers have covered the spread by an average of 18.5 points in Harden’s first two games, with an average margin of victory of 23.5.
If you are looking to bet the Sixers to win the Eastern Conference, now would be a good time. Philadelphia travels back home for its next two games against the Knicks and a Cavs team it beat 103-93 less than three weeks ago. The Sixers could become a very popular team as the sportsbooks adjust to Harden’s impact. BetMGM offers a wide variety of options for betting NBA futures, and I looked at two separate markets that provide value depending on your risk threshold.
Conference winner: Philadelphia 76ers (+340)
The Sixers have the third-best odds behind the Brooklyn Nets and Milwaukee Bucks. The defending champion Bucks are currently 1.5 games behind the Sixers. Embiid broke the Bucks’ defense right before the break by posting 42 points in a 123-120 impressive road win. With the addition of Harden, it’s tough to imagine Milwaukee slowing down the Sixers now. Brooklyn will be the biggest challenge, but the road for the favorites will not be an easy one. Unless the Nets can gain some serious ground in the standings, they will be without home-court advantage in every round. We saw the Lakers try a similar route last year that ended with a first-round exit. The Sixers at +340, with a 22% implied probability, makes a ton of sense after seeing Harden on the floor.
Name the finalists: Philadelphia 76ers vs. Phoenix Suns (+1100)
Here is where we can get creative and take a swing at a bigger return. I think we can all agree that the East is the more wide-open conference. Before the Chris Paul injury, the Suns’ 48-10 record was the best in basketball.
The Warriors are now the favorites at +175 to win the West, but there is a steep drop-off after those two teams. The door is still open for Jamal Murray to return for Denver, but it’s a long shot that he could contribute at the required level to dethrone Phoenix. Memphis’ inexperience and Utah’s postseason track record are enough for me to view the Western Conference as a two-team race. I put my money on Phoenix, but there are still plenty of options if you are apprehensive to crown the Suns.
Betting both the Suns and the Warriors in the West
Wagering the Sixers to come out of the East and pairing with the Phoenix Suns increases the odds from +340 to +1100. Golden State is available at the same price if you are more confident Steph Curry leads the Warriors to his sixth finals appearance. Both teams’ reliance on their superstars returning from injury makes the handicap a little more challenging.
However, you don’t have to pick between the teams. Risking a half unit on both teams to reach the finals against the Sixers still provides a greater return than taking Philadelphia to win the conference at +340. Each half-unit bet will yield a return of 5.5 times the combined wager for both bets at 11-to-1 odds. Even after subtracting the half-unit loss for the other bet, you are profiting 5 units as opposed to the 3.4 betting Philly to win the East would return. There is more risk involved when taking two teams versus the field, but I think the current landscape in the West creates an opportunity that is worth the risk.
