Look out, folks, we have a series on our hands. The importance of Wednesday night’s Game 3 skyrocketed after Miami stole Game 2 to even the NBA Finals. The big story of the Heat’s stunning comeback was Erik Spoelstra’s decision to move PF Kevin Love into the starting lineup. The move set the table for Jimmy Butler to see more Jamal Murray, and Butler delivered in a big way. The move also gave Miami some much-need size on the floor, resulting in a dip in production from key Denver role players Michael Porter Jr. and Aaron Gordon.
Denver knows it can’t survive on Nikola Jokić’s scoring alone, so its ability to get everybody on the floor contributing early will be a key factor in the outcome. The chess match between the opposing coaches is well underway, as the hoops world anticipates the next move from Nuggets coach Michael Malone. I am targeting three player props for Game 3. While two are based on what we have seen so far, one is in anticipation of a move that could be on the horizon.
Jimmy Butler under 25.5 points (-120)
“Playoff” Jimmy is different. His postgame comments about not pressing to score, only to win, tells you all you need to know. He may have trademarked “Himmy Buckets,” but he is tunneled in on exerting his energy where it helps his team the most. In this matchup, that’s by driving and kicking as opposed to shouldering the scoring load. It’s Miami’s ball movement that is forcing Denver to look disconnected on defense, and Butler won’t stop initiating until his opponent proves it can play with more discipline. While Butler focuses on the more important task of limiting Murray, I will pay to fade his scoring total. Butler averaged 17 points through the first two games and has failed to reach this number in four of his last five.
Nikola Jokić over 28.5 points (-110)
I played this in both Game 1 and 2 with mixed results, but I am confident enough to go back to the well. Jokic logged 27 points in the series opener, coming up just short of his scoring prop (27.5). Spoelstra’s adjustments led to him cashing easily with 41 points on Sunday night, causing a one-point adjustment from the books. If the two-time MVP could muster 27 when he was the Heat’s primary defensive concern, I will gladly take the over now that making Murray miserable has become Miami’s main priority. I am not going to go as far as to say 40-point nights are going to be the norm for Jokic moving forward, but he’s certainly capable of doing it again. Nikola Jokic to score 40-plus points at +625 was also enticing enough for me to sprinkle a small stake.
Bruce Brown over 14.5 points and rebounds (-115)
Is Bruce Brown Malone’s counterpunch for Game 3? It may not start off that way, but if Michael Porter Jr. continues to struggle, it makes sense for Malone to lean on Brown for a spark. Porter Jr. is shooting 3-of-17 from 3-point range in the Finals and shot 3-of-10 in the final game against the Lakers. Porter Jr. and his size were supposed to be huge advantages for the Nuggets, but time is not a luxury in the NBA Finals. I am less confident he finds his stroke early on the road, which could force Malone to take decisive action. Rather than fade Porter Jr.’s props, I will opt to back the main beneficiary instead. Brown beat this number in seven of his last eight games. It’s possible he covers this number without gaining extra minutes, making this bet a solid play because of its high ceiling-low floor dynamic.
