Draft prep season is in full effect, with the NBA season less than two weeks away. At this point in the preseason, you’re likely making a list of players to target or fade when it’s your turn to draft. To help you avoid potential missteps, this week I’ll break down some of the players I’m fading by position — we covered the guards on Tuesday and forwards on Wednesday, so let’s finish it with the centers!
ADP: 64.5
I featured Gobert in my latest fantasy basketball analyst roundtable, the All-fade team for the upcoming season; here’s the TLDR.
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Being traded to Minnesota to re-create a modern version of the Twin Towers with Karl-Anthony Towns was a mistake.
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Though he finished 59th in per-game value last year, he underperformed relative to his third-round ADP.
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While he saw minor improvements in assists and steals, his production dropped off in scoring, rebounds, blocks, free-throw percentage and FG percentage.
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His production plateaued even when Towns missed 53 games.
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Gobert’s sixth-round ADP is fair, but all I see are signs of his decline.
ADP: 67.8
Lopez continues to re-invent himself as his career wears on. The former All-Star who used to live in the post has evolved into Splash Mountain, one of the best three-point shooting centers in the NBA. He enjoyed his best season in seven years, raising the bar in just about every category except for free-throw percentage. He played 78 games, and even his minutes topped the 30-plus threshold on a per-game basis for the first time since 2015-16. Most impressively, Lopez averaged a career-high 2.5 blocks per game last season at age 34.
Multiple factors contributed to Lopez’s surprising surge in 2022-23. He came into last season ranked outside of the top 100 in expert consensus rankings and finished in the top 20 — that’s wild. His high block rate was the most significant boost to his value, and sadly, I don’t see that repeating.
He’s blocked over two shots just four times in his 15-year career. What he did last year was undeniably special, but history tells a different story. Only four players in NBA history have averaged over two blocks per game after turning 35. David Robinson, Dikembe Mutombo, Alonzo Mourning and Mark Eaton — all who happen to be in the top five in blocks per game in NBA history.
Brook Lopez, however, is not (he’s 31st in blocks per game all-time).
So what happens when the blocks regress? He won’t reach his ADP in the fifth round. Other analysts also remain skittish on Lopez, as his ECR is still 104.8, yet his ADP is 67.8. Last year was an outlier, and we’ll likely see him perform to sixth or seventh-round value.
ADP: 76.4
A few things are working against Capela’s fantasy stock at the moment. First, he averaged 26.6 minutes per game last season — marking the fourth consecutive year his minutes have gone down. Conversely, Onyeka Okongwu, the Hawks’ fourth-year backup center, has seen his minutes trend up each of the last three seasons. There’s a legitimate timeshare on the horizon. It doesn’t help matters that Capela’s name has come up in trade rumors recently as this summer, either. That’s no coincidence.
Okongwu will be a restricted free agent at the end of the season, and with $80M tied up between Capela and De’Andre Hunter over the next two seasons, the Hawks will find a way to come off those contracts. Capela has a high floor as a low-end double-double threat, but his block rate reached a career-low 3.9% last season. That’s troubling for his fantasy outlook because that’s where his upside lies.
He’ll continue to start for his size, rim protection and rim running, but his lack of versatility leaves the door open for Okongwu to continue eating into his minutes. Sixth round is too rich for someone who’s approaching a committee situation.