Bridges can continue ascension into fantasy star
Mikal Bridges put up impressive numbers after being traded to the Brooklyn Nets and the 27-year-old budding star looks like a worthy pick in fantasy basketball drafts this year.
This is not a drill! I REPEAT… THIS IS NOT A DRILL! Opening tip-off of the 2023-24 NBA season is drawing ever closer, and if you’re anything like the Rotoworld crew, you’ve been diving deep into as many mock drafts as you can jam into your schedule! We asked Noah Rubin, Raphielle Johnson and Zak Hanshew to give us the goods on their preferred draft strategies, favorite and least favorite picks in each round, and much more! Here’s what they had to say…
Who is your favorite pick in each round?
Round 1
LaMelo Ball – You can’t go wrong in the first round, but I love starting off my draft with LaMelo when I have one of the last few picks. His game is perfect for fantasy basketball, and he should bounce back after an injury-riddled season. Get ready to punt field goal percentage and turnovers! -Noah
Nikola Jokic – Come on. Of course he’s my favorite pick in the first round. -Raphielle
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander – He finished third in per-game fantasy value a season ago, and while Chet Holmgren’s arrival may cause a slight dip in scoring and rebounding, SGA is still a top-5 guy. I’ve seen him go as late as 6th in some drafts. -Zak
Round 2
Trae Young – If you have a late pick in your draft, one of my favorite strategies is to start off with LaMelo and Trae. They both fit a turnover and field goal percentage punt and will provide plenty of points, assists and 3-pointers. Two fun players that should be better than they were last season. -Noah
Anthony Edwards – He’s a player I would strongly consider grabbing late in the first round of a draft. I’m expecting big things from him, especially if Karl-Anthony Towns can stay healthy. -Raphielle
Anthony Davis – AD was fantasy’s top overall player for vast stretches of the 2022-23 season. Sure, you’re always worried about him missing games, but on a per-game basis, there’s no way he finishes outside the top-12. Landing a guy with this type of ceiling in the 2nd Round is diabolically good value. -Zak
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Round 3
Lauri Markkanen – Lauri broke out last season, and you can’t get him at a discount anymore. However, he was a top-20 fantasy player in fantasy basketball last season, and now he is going in the third round of drafts. He struggled a bit after they traded away Mike Conley, but if he can get his field goal percentage up after it was 45% over the final two months of last season, he should produce second-round value once again. -Noah
Desmond Bane – No Ja Morant for 25 games should give him the runway to provide fantasy managers with excellent fantasy value. -Raphielle
Kawhi Leonard – This dude just doesn’t play, and even the NBA’s new rules about resting surely won’t have a drastic impact on Leonard’s availability. Can we get 55-60 games from him in 2023-24? If so, he’ll be one of the best values in fantasy – a third-rounder with easy first-round value. -Zak
Round 4
Evan Mobley – Heading into year three, Mobley is ready for a big season. He was a third-round value over the final two months of last year and getting him in the fourth round should be a bargain. He won’t be able to reach his peak this season with Jarrett Allen still on the team, and he doesn’t fit with the LaMelo/Trae start, but I love getting him in round four. -Noah
Chet Holmgren – If you can get Chet at this point in a draft, consider yourself fortunate. His early ADP is way too low. -Raphielle
Fred VanVleet – He’s been a perennial top-20 guy, but a huge payday and move to H-Town, and suddenly his ADP craters. That’s just fine by me! I’ll take a guy with second-round upside two rounds later. That’s a no-brainer! -Zak
Round 5
Chet Holmgren – This may seem impossible at this point, but Chet’s ADP has him going in the fifth round. I still like getting him in round four, so this feels like a steal. Chet is going to compete with Victor Wembanyama for Rookie of the Year, and he’ll be a great source of points, rebounds, blocks and 3-pointers from the center spot. -Noah
Tyrese Maxey – Regardless of what happens with James Harden, I’m expecting big things out of Maxey before he hits restricted free agency next summer. -Raphielle
Chet Holmgren – He’s got the same skillset as fellow ROY contender Victor Wembanyama, but Wemby is going two rounds earlier. I love a seven-footer with handles, an outside shot, and elite rebounding and shot-blocking. But I also love value, so I’ll take “Wish.com Wemby” and laugh all the way to the bank. -Zak
Round 6
Devin Vassell – Vassell recently signed a four-year, $146 million contract, and that should seem like a bargain by the end of it. He has a fantasy friendly game, and he does other things well that won’t directly impact fantasy basketball. He’ll provide points, steals and 3-pointers at a high rate, and he should also provide sneaky value with assists and blocks. -Noah
Alperen Sengun – He may ultimately be a player with 5th-round ADP in Yahoo leagues, but we aren’t there just yet. The ability to facilitate offensively makes Sengun a valuable fantasy option, especially if blocked shots aren’t a priority for your roster. -Raphielle
Nicolas Claxton – C’mon guys. This isn’t rocket science. Claxton had the best season of his career in 2022-23, and he delivered top-30 value in the process. Which elite center did Brooklyn sign in the offseason to steal Claxton’s minutes or usage? -Zak
Round 7
Jerami Grant – With Damian Lillard gone, Grant should play a large role for the Blazers this season. He may end up as their leading scorer, and he should also provide 3-pointers, steals and blocks. He isn’t great across the board, but he was a top-75 player with Dame last year. In a larger role, he should be better. -Noah
Kyle Kuzma – Turnovers and field-goal percentage limited Kuzma’s value last season, but that was on a roster with Bradley Beal and Kristaps Porzingis. He’s well-positioned to put up the numbers needed to limit the negative impact those categories can have on him in 2023-24. -Raphielle
Devin Vassell – DV finished just inside the top-80 in per-game fantasy value last season, but he hasn’t scratched the surface yet. Vassell got the bag this offseason with a monster extension, and he’s expected to take another step forward in Year 4 after improving statistically in each of his last two campaigns. -Zak
Round 8
Andrew Wiggins – Wiggins is one of my favorite players to draft this year. He was a top-25 player in 9-cat scoring for the first month of last season. He ended up missing most of the rest of the season with various injuries, but if he can get back to that level of production, he’ll blow his ADP out of the water. -Noah
Scoot Henderson – Portland moved Damian Lillard, opening the door for Henderson to shine from Day 1. Not sure he produces on par with Victor Wembanyama or Chet Holmgren, but Scoot will be one of the top rookies in fantasy basketball. -Raphielle
Derrick White – Rumors of his demise are greatly exaggerated, and White should still see plenty of minutes and usage for a new-look Celtics team that is suddenly much thinner. The arrival of Jrue Holiday puts a cap on White’s ceiling, but “Bald Derrick” should still easily outperform his current ADP. -Zak
Round 9
Daniel Gafford – The Wizards’ starting center’s ADP is still in the ninth round on Yahoo, but I love getting him here. He has zero competition for center minutes, and he should be a great source of blocks, rebounds and a sky high field goal percentage. -Noah
Mark Williams – The second-year center out of Duke is firmly entrenched as the starter in Charlotte. That, along with a healthy LaMelo Ball, should boost Williams’ value. -Raphielle
Robert Williams – He doesn’t need a ton of minutes to average 2.0 blocks, and his elite FG%, strong rebounds and low TOs give him top-50 upside at a top-100 price. Sign me up! -Zak
Round 10
Zach Collins – Along with Gafford, Collins is one of the centers that I love getting late in drafts. These two make me wait to fill the center position out in most drafts that I’ve done so far. Over the final two months of last season, Collins averaged 16.5 points, 8.0 rebounds, 3.8 assists, 1.1 steals, 1.1 blocks and 1.6 triples per game. He won’t replicate that for a full season, but it should still be a really good year for him. -Noah
Shaedon Sharpe – The reasoning here is similar to that for Scoot. Even with the Blazers stating that they want to hold onto Malcolm Brogdon, his playing time won’t come at the expense of Sharpe’s development. -Raphielle
Shaedon Sharpe – He was phenomenal to finish out last season, and his opportunity is set to spike in 2023-24 after Damian Lillard was dealt to Milwaukee. I love the second-year man in Round 10. -Zak
Round 11
Ben Simmons – Simmons’ ADP has also risen lately because of all the reports surrounding him. He’ll be their starting point guard and looked good in their first preseason game. He feels like a safer option than he was over each of the past two seasons and could come close to producing at the level that he did a few seasons ago. -Noah
Ben Simmons – An early Yahoo ADP of 126.6 is too low for Simmons, even with the availability concerns. I expect him to finish the season as a top 100 player despite the poor foul shooting. -Raphielle
Ben Simmons – I really wanted to say Bruce Brown here, but Ben Simmons is such a value at the end of fantasy drafts. Can he get back to playing close to the level he was playing at while in Philly? If so, he can give your fantasy team some monster counting stats. He’s even better if you’re punting FT%. -Zak
Round 12
Ausar Thompson – With Ausar starting for Detroit during the preseason, he’ll be one of the best late round picks this season. He has tons of upsides and can contribute value across the board. He may struggle with his field goal percentages and turnovers as a rookie, but the production elsewhere is worth the late round swing. -Noah
Ausar Thompson – There have been recent rumblings that Thompson is on his way to earning a spot in the starting lineup. If so, he could offer excellent fantasy value if drafted this late. -Raphielle
Ausar Thompson – The rookie is trending toward starting for the Pistons this season, and he’s got the ability to stuff the stat sheet and offer strong contributions in a number of categories. His ADP is sure to climb further if he continues to perform well in the preseason, but Thompson is still going to be a draft day steal. -Zak
Who is your least favorite pick in each round?
Round 1
Stephen Curry – Steph is generally going with either pick six or seven, which is just a little high for me. While he’s incredibly effective when he’s on the floor, he only played in 56 games last year after playing in 63 and 64 in the two prior seasons. He’s getting older, and if I’m going with an older player that will miss games, Kevin Durant and Anthony Davis are better values. -Noah
Luka Doncic – I thought about Giannis in this spot. But Luka is now dealing with a lingering thigh issue (which was first a problem late last season) and he strained his left calf in practice on Tuesday. While there’s no need to be concerned about the production, the injuries are a concern. -Raphielle
Kevin Durant – He’s another year older, likely to miss games and playing alongside yet another high-usage guard after the Suns traded for Bradley Beal. I’m just not interested in KD in the first round. There are too many red flags, even for a guy who has performed so well throughout his career. -Zak
Round 2
Mikal Bridges – Bridges is going to be really good this season, but he’s going in the second round of drafts. That feels more like his ceiling than his floor. At best, he’ll be a top-25 player in fantasy. If anything doesn’t live up to the hype, he may end up falling far short of his ADP. -Noah
Mikal Bridges – As good as he was last season, I’m not sure I can hop on the second-round bandwagon here. Teams will now prepare for Bridges in a way different from how they have in seasons past, including after he was traded to the Nets. He’ll still be a valuable fantasy option, but the second round is a little early for my taste. -Raphielle
Mikal Bridges – I can’t imagine ponying up a second-rounder to draft a guy at his absolute ceiling. Can Bridges be the best he’s ever been… again? I’m not banking on that, especially if it costs me a top-24 pick. -Zak
Round 3
LeBron James – Like other older stars, LeBron is going to be really good when he’s on the floor. However, he hasn’t reached 60 games since the 2019-20 season. The Lakers have more depth now and won’t have to ride his coattails to make the playoffs. They may manage his games and minutes more than ever, which will limit his opportunity to return third round value. -Noah
James Harden – While he is in camp with the 76ers, it was recently reported that he’ll remain engaged as long as he believes the team is working on trading him to the Clippers. That’s a recipe for disaster, so let another manager deal with it. -Raphielle
Nikola Vucevic – I’m not into drafting Vooch until Pick 50 or later, which precludes him from any of my lists of draft targets in the third or fourth rounds. He’s still going to be a strong fantasy contributor thanks to his passing and long-range shooting, but the writing is on the wall for a statistical step-back. -Zak
Round 4
Nikola Vucevic – Vooch is a very safe pick. He’ll play a lot of games and provide solid value. However, aside from rebounding, he isn’t great in any individual category. I’d rather get a player that is going to fit a team build well than a guy like Vucevic in round four. His usage rate last year was the lowest it’s been since his third year in the league, and there’s no reason to think it will go up this year. -Noah
Jrue Holiday – Holiday has been a top 50 fantasy player each of the last six seasons, and he hasn’t finished outside the top 100 since his rookie season. But he joins a roster with two ball-dominant wings in Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, and Derrick White will handle the ball plenty as well. -Raphielle
Zion Williamson – He’s missed far more games than he’s played at this point in his relatively short NBA career, and I want no part of him on any of my fantasy teams. I can’t trust that he’ll give me 30 games, let alone 55 or 60. Let Zion be someone else’s headache. -Zak
Round 5
Jarrett Allen – Much like Vooch, Allen is a boring pick. He can get rebounds, blocks and a high field goal percentage, but there’s a lot of centers that can do that. As Mobley grows, Allen’s value will only decrease. I feel better getting Jalen Duren or Mark Williams a few rounds later than getting Allen. -Noah
Scottie Barnes – At this point in a draft, I prefer to look for upside. Given how much Barnes has struggled as a perimeter shooter, I have concerns about how much better he can be. He’ll be a solid fantasy player, but I’d like a little more from my picks in this section of a draft. -Raphielle
Brandon Ingram – Just like Zion, there’s so much injury risk associated with this guy, and there’s no real upside at this range. Ingram may finish inside the top-50 if the stars align, but he feels more like a top-60 option, and if you take him here, you’re getting him at his ceiling. No thanks. -Zak
Round 6
Chris Paul – I’ve said a lot about why I probably won’t draft CP3 this year. I’d take him in round eight or nine, and he’ll never slip that far. I have so many questions about what his role will look like when the team is healthy, and he was already regressing in Phoenix last season. -Noah
Ja Morant – We already know he’s going to miss 25 games due to suspension. And given his injury history, it’s difficult to guarantee that Morant will play in all 57 games he’ll be available for. There are better options available in most drafts, as far as availability is concerned. -Raphielle
Kyle Kuzma – He’s going to feast as one of Washington’s primary scoring options… but didn’t he do that a season ago and still finish outside the top-100 in per-game value? Kuz had arguably the best season of his career across the board in 2022-23, but due to lack of defensive stats and poor FT%, his fantasy value isn’t sniffing the sixth round. -Zak
Round 7
Khris Middleton – Middleton’s knee was a concern last season, but he should have no issues playing in more than the 33 games he played in last year. For the past few years, Middleton has been Milwaukee’s closer and go-to shot creator. Giannis is dominant, but Middleton was the guy that they’d look to for buckets. With Damian Lillard in town, Middleton’s opportunities will decrease. -Noah
Buddy Hield – Hield needs a trade to take on the role he desires. But until that move happens he’s stuck with the Pacers, and his fantasy value will take a hit due to the emergence of Bennedict Mathurin and the addition of Bruce Brown. -Raphielle
Spencer Dinwiddie – He finished inside the top-100 on the season overall and just outside the top-100 after arriving in Brooklyn. Dinwiddie handed out double-digit dimes in five of his last six contests to close the season, but he was still just a top-75 guy. With Ben Simmons back at PG, Dinwiddie won’t be averaging 10+ assists per night. He doesn’t need to be drafted this high. -Zak
Round 8
Jonas Valanciunas – If you’re looking for boards, great. Take JV. However, his minutes took a big hit last season as New Orleans opted for other center options for defensive purposes. After a three year run as a top-50 fantasy player, JV was barely in the top-125 last season. I don’t see his minutes getting back to 30 per game this season. -Noah
Jonas Valanciunas – Valanciunas struggles defensively, and those issues led to his minutes decreasing down the stretch last season. While he remains in the starting lineup, the combination of JV struggling in defending ball-screens and the return of Zion Williamson makes it difficult to fully trust the 7-footer. -Raphielle
Clint Capela – Valanciunas was another name on my short list here, but I’ll pivot to Capela, who occupies a frontcourt timeshare with Onyeka Okongwu. Okongwu came on last season, taking minutes from CC and severely limiting his upside. Okongwu is much cheaper on draft day, and I’d rather have him than Capela. Neither are particularly appealing given the timeshare. -Zak
Round 9
John Collins – Just a few years ago, Collins was a fantasy superstar. However, when Clint Capela took over as the starting center, Collins saw fewer pick and roll opportunities, and his value has just gone downhill from there. Now he’s in Utah, the team that doesn’t have a true point guard. It’s a bad situation for JC, and I’m avoiding him in drafts. -Noah
John Collins – His role with the Jazz should be better than the one Collins held in Atlanta. But that doesn’t guarantee an immediate boost in fantasy value, especially with the Jazz still trying to sort out their guard rotation. -Raphielle
Keldon Johnson – He’s going in the Round 9-10 range, and that just doesn’t make much sense. All this guy does is score and hit threes, but unless you’re hurting for those cats later in a draft, KelJo can be safely ignored for other players with far more to offer. -Zak
Round 10
Keldon Johnson – It’s hard to go wrong over the last few rounds, because it’s mostly upside swings. Keldon will provide points and triples, but he really doesn’t do much else. I like going with players that have upside in a few categories late in the draft, and Johnson just doesn’t fit that mold. -Noah
Keldon Johnson – For one, Johnson’s game doesn’t appear great for fantasy basketball, as he has yet to produce a top 100 season. And with Victor Wembanyama joining the Spurs, Johnson may be the player headed to the bench. That isn’t great for his fantasy value. -Raphielle
PJ Washington – The Hornets took Brandon Miller with the second overall pick in the draft, and Miles Bridges is back. I’m having a difficult time understanding the upside of Washington. I’ll be looking elsewhere in Round 10. -Zak
Round 11
RJ Barrett – Barrett’s skill set is similar to Keldon’s, which is why I probably won’t be getting him in many drafts. He’s a really good scorer, but he’ll hurt your shooting percentages and won’t contribute anywhere else. He’s fine in points leagues, but in category leagues, I won’t draft him. -Noah
Brandon Miller – The Hornets have multiple veterans at the forward positions, which may limit Miller’s fantasy potential as a rookie. That said, he is someone whose value could be boosted after the trade deadline if Charlotte finds itself well out of playoff contention. -Raphielle
RJ Barrett – Score, score, score. That’s all this guy does. He’s a high-volume, low-efficiency chucker who offers little else in other categories. There’s no reason to roster him at all, if we’re keeping it real. -Zak
Round 12
Bol Bol – For some reason, people want to take an upside swing on Bol. I don’t think he’ll be part of Phoenix’s rotation, and there are much better options to take a chance on late in the draft. -Noah
De’Andre Hunter – Even with the Hawks trading John Collins, Hunter isn’t in a great spot as far as fantasy is concerned. In addition to Atlanta having two high-usage guards in Trae Young and Dejounte Murray, the franchise has multiple young talents capable of playing either forward position. -Raphielle
Herb Jones – With Trey Murphy III sidelined to start the season, Herbie may seem like he’s fully loaded for a strong campaign, but unless he’s giving you elite steals and/or blocks, his value is quite limited. I’ll pass and go for a more exciting, upside player. -Zak
What is your favorite punt build, and why?
Punt FG% and Turnovers
As I stated earlier, I LOVE starting a draft with two of LaMelo Ball, Damian Lillard and Trae Young. I enjoy watching all three players, and it gives you the freedom to draft centers that either turn the ball over a lot (Alperen Sengun) or shoot a lower percentage from the field (Pascal Siakam). If players have bad nights, don’t worry about it! Those meme-worthy performances from players won’t have an impact on you getting a win. -Noah
Punt Blocks
For me, it’s blocks. Of all the NBA players who qualified for the league’s rankings in that category last season, 28 averaged at least one block per game. And of those 28, ten averaged at least 1.5 per game, with Jaren Jackson Jr. leading the way at 3.0. And if you’re interested in totals, only 12 players blocked 100 shots or more. If you can get a difference-maker in that category early, great. If not, that isn’t a big deal, as there will be some solid bigs who offer value in categories other than blocks later on. -Raphielle
Punt FT%
In the first round, you can take Luka Doncic or Giannis Antetokounmpo and build from there. This season more than others in recent memory offers a plethora of late-round centers who can fit this build, while managers can grab guards like De’Aaron Fox and Jrue Holiday early to shore up scoring and assists and fill out their rosters. Marcus Smart and Ja Morant are available outside the top-75 and can help you out at G if you go big early in your draft. There are many quality options for this build across multiple rounds, and you can tailor your lineup accordingly. -Zak
What is your least favorite punt build, and why?
Punt Points
BORING! While it could end up being a good strategy if it’s executed properly, it just isn’t something I want to do. A lot of players are elevated in a points punt, such as Walker Kessler, Draymond Green and Ben Simmons. The strategy just prevents me from getting a lot of my favorite players, so I won’t be doing it. -Noah
Punt FT%
Unless you land Giannis Antetokounmpo and Nic Claxton with your first two picks (or two of your first three), what is there to be gained from punting that category? That feels like the category that could lead to managers making some reaches ahead of the middle rounds that they don’t need to if they’re in punt mode. -Raphielle
Punt Points
I’m not interested in trying to make up enough production in other categories to ignore one of fantasy’s most notable cats. Punting points means devaluing some of the game’s best players and making some unusual choices in the early rounds of drafts. Hard pass. -Zak
How do you identify value in drafts?
It’s important to zig when the other managers in your draft zag. Getting players you like is fun, but when a player has slipped past their ADP, find out why. Did news break on them recently, or are the other drafters just not interested? There aren’t many BAD fantasy players, but there are players that are bad picks. Drafting Russell Westbrook isn’t bad but taking him three rounds early is. Also, it’s important to not reach too far on players that you like. I like Zach Collins a lot this year but taking him in round seven eliminates most of his upside. Getting him in round nine or ten makes him a steal. -Noah
Can a player give me solid production in most categories? There will certainly be guys who are deficient in one area or another, but I try to avoid “specialists.” More often than not, you can get those guys as streamers throughout the course of the season. -Raphielle
What is a player’s expected range of outcomes, and where am I getting him? Am I getting him at his ceiling, at his floor, or somewhere in between? You may be risk averse, but when Kawhi Leonard and Paul George go in the third and fourth rounds, respectively, you’ve got to take notice. Robert Williams outside the top-100? Mitchell Robinson outside the top-120? I prefer to draft a guy at his floor or closer to it than his ceiling, and that’s my gauge to identify value. -Zak
How do you leverage rankings to your advantage while drafting?
Rankings can’t encapsulate every team’s strategy. They are guidelines, not a strict rule to follow. Understanding how players are valued is important. I know Andrew Wiggins will generally be there for me in round seven or eight because of where he is ranked. I think he has top fifty upside, but I’m going to take him closer to where most rankings have him. -Noah
Depends on who I’m playing with, in all honesty. While you may be able to get away with that when playing in leagues with managers who don’t pay full attention to the preseason, it’s difficult to do that with seasoned managers who do. While rankings have value, reports from training camp and preseason practices are of higher importance to me. -Raphielle
Know the site you’re playing on, know who you’re drafting with, and know who your late-round favorites are. Rankings vary depending on the site you use, so be cognizant of that, especially when playing against leaguemates who may rely solely on that site to guide them through their draft. Are you playing with friends? Are you playing with an analyst who shares his rankings? You surely know who some of the favorites are, and you can plan your draft strategy accordingly. Most importantly, don’t miss out on guys like Jarace Walker or Christian Braun because you don’t use your own rankings. Walker is ranked outside the top-500 in Yahoo’s default rankings. If you’re simply scrolling through the top available in a 12 or 14-team league, you’re going to miss him. -Zak
How soon do you reach for your guys? Describe your approach to reaching in general.
I start “reaching” for my guys in round one and progressively reach more and more as the draft goes on. It may be reaching a spot or two based on ADP data with my first and second round pick. By round four, I’ll reach 5-7 spots. By round seven, I’ll reach a full round, sometimes more. From round 10 and on, go take some upside swings. Try and find players that can finish much higher than their ADP that late in the draft. Worst case scenario, you drop them and start streaming. -Noah
I like to reach at two points in drafts: the 4th or 5th round and the final two rounds. A reach that works out in the first scenario could potentially win you a league title. As for the final rounds, there isn’t much to be gained from playing it safe at that point in a draft. -Raphielle
I approach reaching with three questions in mind: How much do I like him? How high is his ceiling? Will he be there when it’s my next turn? First of all – GET YOUR GUYS! I can’t say it enough. Fantasy basketball is all about having fun! That’s why I gravitate toward risk/reward guys in the later rounds of drafts rather than safe plays. It’s much more fun that way. Wemby might not be my preferred pick in the second or third round of a draft, but if you’re a diehard Spurs fan or simply love watching a 7’4 alien dominate the Association, “reach” to your heart’s content! Rankings are for the most part subjective, so rather than drafting based on projections or past performance or floor, draft based on ceiling. I’ll reach if the player’s ceiling is higher than other guys in the same range. In a snake draft, position matters, so if you draft at the turn (12/13, 36/37, etc.), you may be “reaching” more than leaguemates because you have 24 picks between your next selections. -Zak
Name 3 players you’re much higher on than consensus
Andrew Wiggins – As I stated above, Wiggins was awesome to start last season. I think he’ll do that again and won’t have any injuries to throw him off his rhythm. -Noah
Anfernee Simons – In 41 games without Dame over the last two seasons, Simons averaged 23.6 points, 5.6 assists and 4.2 triples per game. Scoot Henderson will be there, so Simons won’t average that over the course of a full season. However, he should be in for a big year. -Noah
Zach Collins – Collins was a top-50 player over the final two months of last season after the Spurs traded Jakob Poeltl. He’ll start at center next to Wembanyama and will be the muscle man down low. -Noah
Myles Turner – He has a Yahoo ADP of 37.5, which is way too low, given what he brings to the table. He finished last season as a top-20 player in 9-cat per-game value, and the new contract signed during last season should be taken as a sign that he’s viewed as anything but trade bait in Indiana. -Raphielle
Chet Holmgren – I have a hard time believing that he’s two rounds worse than Victor Wembanyama regarding their current ADPs. Holmgren may be on a better roster, with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams, and Josh Giddey all being quality fantasy players. But I expect Chet to be closer to the top 25 than the top 50 when it’s all said and done. -Raphielle
Nic Claxton – How in the world does he have a Yahoo ADP outside the top 50? Claxton was a top-25 player last season, and that’s despite being a notoriously poor foul shooter. And he’s in a contract year, which should provide Claxton with even more motivation to build on his 2022-23 success. -Raphielle
Robert Williams – He’s getting drafted around Pick 100, which is absolutely criminal. Time Lord has the upside to average 2.0 blocks per game while shooting better than 70% from the floor, and he can finish as a top-50 per-game option, making him a tremendous value. -Zak
Christian Braun – He’s going undrafted in many leagues, but he has the upside and opportunity to finish inside the top-85. With Bruce Brown and Jeff Green gone, 48 minutes are up for grabs, and after a strong finish to the postseason (including 15 points in a pivotal Game 3 of the Finals), Braun is poised to take on an expanded role and reward fantasy managers. -Zak
Tyler Herro – How do the Heat come back from a disappointing end to their Cinderella 2023 playoff run? They lost Gabe Vincent and Max Strus in the offseason and struck out on Damian Lillard and Jrue Holiday. They’re running back a more shallow version of last year’s squad, and with Kyle Lowry a shell of his Toronto self, expect Herro to play a lot of minutes at PG. We know he’s going to score, but if he can facilitate on top of it? He’s going to exceed expectations and blow past his current ADP. -Zak
Name 3 players you’re much lower on than consensus.
Deandre Ayton – I like Ayton during the few days between the Damian Lillard trade and the Jrue Holiday trade. With Robert Williams probably needing 18-20 minutes per game, Ayton may see a max of 30 minutes per game. Ayton also wanted to play a larger role offensively, but with Scoot, Shaedon Sharpe, Simons and Jerami Grant, Ayton may not see many more shots than he did in Phoenix. -Noah
Chris Paul – As I stated above, I just don’t see Golden State as a good fantasy fit for CP3? Could they make it work and have success as a team? Sure, but I think that Paul will have to sacrifice a lot, which isn’t good for his production. -Noah
Austin Reaves – I think Reaves is a really good basketball player. I also think he’ll be better this season for fantasy than he was last year. However, I see him as more of an eighth or ninth round player. He can make small improvements across the board, but he was already a hyper-efficient player, and he isn’t going to contribute many defensive stats. The points, rebounds, assists and 3-pointers will all go up, but that will probably drop his field goal percentage (52.9% as a second year shooting guard is absurd) and raise his turnovers. -Noah
Mikal Bridges – As much as I love Bridges as a fantasy player, I’m not sure about him providing top-20 value based on his current ADP (19.2). While he was excellent as a primary scoring option after being traded to the Nets, that was also a time when opposing teams weren’t used to treating Bridges as such in their defensive game plans. He’ll be very productive, but I’m not sure he’ll finish the season ranked that high. -Raphielle
LeBron James – It almost feels blasphemous to have LeBron here. But the depth that the Lakers have on their roster concerns me with regard to his fantasy value. That team is clearly in “win now” mode, with the aim being to make sure James and Anthony Davis are healthy and fresh come playoff time. I think he finishes the season as a 3rd-round player in head-to-head leagues. -Raphielle
Buddy Hield – Hield currently has a Yahoo ADP of 78.9, and that may be too high for him. With the veteran sharpshooter looking for a more prominent role that doesn’t appear to be available in Indiana, he may need a trade to make good on that ADP. Bennedict Mathurin will continue to figure prominently in the team’s rebuild, and the signing of Bruce Brown doesn’t help matters, either. -Raphielle
Mikal Bridges – Are we really drafting him in the second round, or even worse, inside the top-20? He finished the season as a top-25 guy after getting traded to the Nets, but that’s his absolute ceiling should he continue to be the usage monster he was down the stretch. Taking him inside the top-20 is gambling on Bridges having the best fantasy season of his career… again. I’m avoiding him in 2023-24. -Zak
Brook Lopez – BroLo was huge last season, delivering the most surprising fantasy finish of 2022-23. With Khris Middleton out for most of the season, Lopez found his way to a higher scoring average, increased triples and plenty more minutes. Middleton is back, Damian Lillard is in the fold, and Lopez’s production is going to head south. He’ll get drafted sooner than he should due to last season’s tremendous effort, but he’s not due for a repeat. -Zak
Jalen Green – He’s in the same mold as RJ Barrett or Keldon Johnson. Plenty of scoring and some three-pointers, but no defensive stats and poor percentages. Green has finished 195th or worse in per-game fantasy value in each of his two NBA seasons, and there’s no reason to expect that to change in Year 3, especially after the team completely reloaded in the offseason. Green is the opposite of Sum 41’s hit 2001 album – the Rockets guard is all filler, no killer (unless you’re talking about a killer to your percentages). -Zak
Which 3 players have the biggest range of outcomes this season?
Victor Wembanyama – Sure, Wemby could have one of the best fantasy seasons by a rookie ever. He could be like Karl-Anthony Towns and Stephen Curry and return first round value as a rookie. However, he could also go through some growing pains as a rookie. As much fun as his first preseason game was, he did have some bad turnovers. It’s also a grind playing an 82 game season for the first time. His field goal percentage could be low, his turnovers could be high, and he may not get as many rebounds as you’d expect from someone as tall as he is. A poor season will be masked by his blocks, since he should easily average 1.5 per game, at minimum. -Noah
Zion Williamson – Zion could be healthy this season and play 65 games (let’s not get too crazy and say more than that). When he’s on the floor, he has been dominant. The range of outcomes for Zion are him playing 65 games or 25 games. I don’t have per-game concerns, but I do have durability concerns. This same point applies to quite a few other players, but players like Kawhi Leonard, Anthony Davis and Kevin Durant are probably between 45-65 games, while Zion only played in 29 last season. -Noah
Ben Simmons – Which Simmons are we getting? He looked good in the preseason and reports suggest that he is back to the player that he was a few years ago. But there is some risk here. He was a third round value during the 2019-20 season despite not hitting a 3-pointer and having an atrocious free throw percentage. He has that type of talent and upside, but he could also just end up as the same player that he was last year. I’m more optimistic on Simmons and think he should easily be a top-100 player, however, there’s a chance that everything goes sideways. -Noah
Zion Williamson – When available, he’s a beast on the floor who provides high-level fantasy value. But he’s also had just one season in which he stayed relatively healthy. Even if Williamson finishes ranked well within the top 50 in per-game value, that won’t do managers much good if he can’t play 55-60 games. -Raphielle
Jordan Poole – There’s certainly optimism regarding what Poole can potentially offer after being traded to the rebuilding Wizards. He certainly has top-50 potential, but the percentages concern me. He won’t be sharing the court with offensive talents on par with Stephen Curry or Klay Thompson, which could impact the quality of shots that Poole gets. -Raphielle
Giannis Antetokounmpo – He was a top-5 player in most drafts before last season, only to finish outside the top 100 in 9-cat per-game value. Giannis has shot below 70% from the foul line in three of his last four seasons, which is a bit concerning. Even with the addition of Damian Lillard, another poor season at the line could keep Antetokounmpo from meeting the expectations of fantasy managers. -Raphielle
Anthony Edwards – Can he be a top-12 guy in 2023-24? He’s certainly got the upside thanks to his elite offensive skills and the ability to rack up defensive stats at a tremendous level. Can he improve his efficiency from the field and from the charity stripe? If so, a first-round finish is in the cards. If not, he may be in the top-40 range or somewhere in between. -Zak
Jordan Poole – I predict that he’ll lead the league in scoring and have a huge “told ya so” season in his first campaign with the Wizards. Rumors of his demise were greatly exaggerated due to a “down year” in Golden State, but this guy has a deep bag on offense, and he’s a solid facilitator. He can bounce back and finish inside the top-50 if he takes the reigns in the nation’s capital, or he can play like he did in Golden State a season ago and disappoint fantasy hoops managers worldwide. -Zak
Chris Paul – I’ve been avoiding him in all mock drafts, and I haven’t drafted him in a real league, either. I can’t figure out if he’ll be a tremendous value playing alongside Steph Curry (or operating as Golden State’s Sixth Man) or a huge bust. Will he miss significant time again? Will his role be significantly reduced? Will he surprise us all provide some vintage “Point God” play? His range of outcomes is quite varied, and I’m not quite sure which way he finishes. -Zak
Describe Your Favorite Draft Strategy
Gen-Z: 1997-2012 – Only draft players 26 and under
This is more of a guideline than a fine rule for me. If you have the first pick, you’re going to break the rule off the bat by taking Nikola Jokic. However, going young helps in a few ways. A lot of the injury-prone players are older guys, so going young should help you maximize your games played. Younger players are also the ones more likely to have breakout seasons, so going with young players will allow you to get players that. Will produce much better value than their ADP. This is also my attempt at creating an ELITE dynasty squad in a redraft league. Like any strategy, there are times to break the rule. When you can get good value on an older player, do it! Getting a young squad has plenty of benefits, and if you care about the fun factor, young players usually put on quite a show! -Noah
Boring Strategy
My approach is to avoid going into a draft locked into a particular punting strategy. Why? Because I prefer to let the first and second rounds dictate how I’ll approach the remainder of the draft in head-to-head leagues. Free throw percentage tends to be a popular category to punt in head-to-head leagues, but only one player who finished last season with a top-25 per-game value shot below 74% from the charity stripe (Nic Claxton). Of course, using a first-round pick on a player like Giannis Antetokounmpo could change the thinking on a free-throw punt at that moment. But overall, I like to give myself some leeway on the off chance that a fellow manager makes an unexpected move in the first two rounds. -Raphielle
Zero Center
Perhaps no season has been better in recent memory for waiting on a big man than 2023-24. The list of centers that you can draft after the first five rounds is extensive and includes the likes of Alperen Sengun, Rudy Gobert, Brook Lopez, Jakob Poeltl, Jabari Smith, Robert Williams, Mitchell Robinson, Jalen Duren, Mark Williams, Onyeka Okongwu and Jusuf Nurkic, among others. I love going guard and forward-heavy to start off my draft and punt one of Blocks or Rebounds. I can then fill out my roster with quality bigs later in the draft without having to worry about their contributions in either of those categories. You’ve heard of Zero RB in fantasy football. It’s time for the Zero Center revolution in fantasy hoops! -Zak
